Taiwan raises doubts about own defense; US at center of collision course

Editor’s Note: This piece by Andrew Salmon features quotes from CSP Senior Fellow Grant Newsham.

SEOUL, South Korea — America’s mission to defend Taiwan is shaping up to be a lonely one.

NATO, the formidable Western military alliance, will not take part, while Taipei’s own forces are underpowered and have limited experience operating with U.S. troops in a time of war.

Following February’s Chinese spy balloon brouhaha, Wednesday’s planned meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is likely to further infuriate Beijing. The steadily deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington have shone a light on an unexpected question: In a region where countries have complex, at times contradictory relations with both the U.S. and China, which countries will fight and which will sit it out if war breaks out over Taiwan?

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Regarding the island’s will to fight, Taipei in December extended conscription from four months to one year, but a key component that adds troop numbers and local knowledge is still lacking. In the Ukraine war’s early phase, territorial militias armed with anti-tank weapons and backed by precision artillery played a major role in shattering invading Russian forces targeting Kyiv and other major cities.