Taiwan raises doubts about own defense; US at center of collision course
Editor’s Note: This piece by Andrew Salmon features quotes from CSP Senior Fellow Grant Newsham.
SEOUL, South Korea — America’s mission to defend Taiwan is shaping up to be a lonely one.
NATO, the formidable Western military alliance, will not take part, while Taipei’s own forces are underpowered and have limited experience operating with U.S. troops in a time of war.
Following February’s Chinese spy balloon brouhaha, Wednesday’s planned meeting between Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is likely to further infuriate Beijing. The steadily deteriorating relations between Beijing and Washington have shone a light on an unexpected question: In a region where countries have complex, at times contradictory relations with both the U.S. and China, which countries will fight and which will sit it out if war breaks out over Taiwan?
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Regarding the island’s will to fight, Taipei in December extended conscription from four months to one year, but a key component that adds troop numbers and local knowledge is still lacking. In the Ukraine war’s early phase, territorial militias armed with anti-tank weapons and backed by precision artillery played a major role in shattering invading Russian forces targeting Kyiv and other major cities.
“You want Taiwan to be a little bit Switzerland and a little bit Hezbollah,” suggested Grant Newsham, author of “When China Attacks.”
No such transformation is underway.
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“U.S. policy appears to be ‘wing it’ if China does something,” Mr. Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine colonel, said, calling the situation “disgraceful.”
“Successive U.S. administrations deserve blame, and it’s not as if Indo-Pacific Command commanders have resigned or even threatened to resign,” he continued.
Given these complications, “The U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force would probably prefer it if the Taiwanese got out of the way,” opined the defense source, making the war even more of a direct clash between the U.S. and China.
