Taliban Leader Mullah Omar: Dead or Alive?

The Afghan government claimed on Wednesday that Taliban leader Mullah Omar died nearly two years ago. Omar became the Supreme Leader of the Taliban in 1996, and his government was toppled by US forces in 2001. Omar’s death, however, is suspect, as there have been various claims of his death over the years.

Additionally, the Taliban released a statement in relation to Omar claiming, “The news about Mullah Omar’s death is a conspiracy against the Taliban.” Although it is not advisable to automatically believe any claim from the Taliban, their most recent statement supports claims that Omar is not dead, as it is reasonable to assume that the Taliban would have released a martyrdom announcement if he were deceased.

In 2008, the BBC reported that a US missile strike killed Omar in Pakistan, however it turned out the Taliban member that was killed was a lower-ranking official of the same name. In June 2011, the National Post reported top level Taliban officials were doubting whether Omar was still alive. Suspicions of Omar’s death furthered when apparent text messages from Taliban leaders announcing Omar’s death were revealed. The Taliban was quick to deny the messages, claiming the messages were a hack.

In November 2014, the New York Times published an article about Omar’s “invisibility” as he had not been publicly seen since 2001. The article, however, suggested there was a general consensus amongst Afghan security forces that Omar was alive. The article went as far to quote an official explaining that Afghan security officials had, “a good understanding of where exactly he is.” If one were to base an argument on this evidence, it is extremely illogical for the Afghan government to claim Omar died over two years ago when just last year Afghan security forces believed he was alive and knew his whereabouts.

Another argument can be made that the latest claims of Omar’s death are deriving from Islamic State propaganda. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Islamic State, has ridiculed Omar on various occasions. Baghdadi declared himself as Caliph, while Omar’s supporters have declared him, “Emir of the Faithful” a term commonly used to refer to the Caliph.

By spreading propaganda of Omar’s death, Baghdadi could be attempting to gain support from individuals and organizations that had previously pledged bayah, or allegiance, to Omar. Those supporters include al-Qaeda, who recently renewed their bayah to Omar last July. It should be added that it is unlikely that al-Qaeda would renew their allegiance to Mullah Omar had he been dead.

The other main argument that can be made in favor of Omar not being dead as it could be an attempt by Taliban splinter group Fidai Mahaz to influence peace negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government. Earlier this month, a statement supposedly released by Omar expressed support for the talks in search of ending war in Afghanistan.

However, Omar’s approval of the negotiations were not reflective of the opinion of Taliban splinter groups such Fidai Mahaz who have expressed their opposition to the discussions. Claiming Omar was deceased, as Fidai Mahaz has done, would have the potential to undermine the Taliban’s stance in the peace negotiations.

Finally, recent activity suggests that the Taliban is continuing its aggressive and coordinated campaign against the Afghan government, and clearly the Taliban has robust leadership as they have ramped up attacks in Afghanistan.

Isn’t it reasonable to presume that that leader remains Mullah Omar?