Testing, testing

Decision Brief                             No. 06-D 51                               2006-10-03

(Washington, D.C.): In the wake of the panicky response to North Korea’s announcement today that it intended soon to conduct a nuclear test, it is worth pausing to consider fully the source and implications of Kim Jong-Il’s latest eruption – and the measures that must be adopted to protect the Nation from the likely consequences of his regime’s continued belligerence.

Pyongyang ‘s Posturing

It is certainly no secret that planning for this test has been in the works for some time. Taken together with Kim Jong Il’s history of aggressive behavior, these preparations suggest that today’s announcement is yet another in a line of North Korean shakedowns aimed at extracting from the West economic, political and strategic concessions needed to prop up Kim’s failing autocracy.

Unfortunately, official Washington seems to be buying in to this gambit yet again. Republican and Democratic politicians alike – with the notable exception of those such as members of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence responsible for the release of a report today outlining the strategic threat posed by the regime – have joined the Bush Administration in issuing still further, unconvincing warnings to the effect that such a North Korean nuclear test posed an “unacceptable threat.” One NSC spokesman actually cautioned that such an event would “severely undermine” U.S. confidence in Kim’s commitment to a negotiated settlement.

Never mind that Kim Jong Il knows full well – as should any American diplomat, military officer or politician worth his salt – that there has long been no basis for confidence in the North Korean despot’s commitment to a negotiated settlement. Holding out the hope that Pyongyang can, with encouragement from the South Koreans and Communist Chinese, be bribed into cooperating is a snare and delusion.

Enabling Iran

Another upshot of the expected North Korean test is that it will likely prove a boon not just to Pyongyang ‘s nuclear program but to that of Islamofascist Iran . After all, cash-strapped North Korea has made no secret of its readiness to sell military hardware and know-how to willing buyers, giving rise to active technology-sharing and joint development projects with Iran , among others.

Given their history of collaboration, Tehran will likely have its own nuclear engineers and scientists on hand to witness North Korea ?s nuclear test – knowledge of which will immeasurably aid an already advanced Iranian weapons program. It may even be an Iranian-manufactured nuclear device that is to be tested. Either way, the prospect that the Islamic Republic of Iran will also benefit means that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be one step closer to having the capability to act on his stated goals of wiping Israel off the map and bringing about “a world without America.”

Defending America

The good news is that President Bush has taken steps to end the insane policy of assured vulnerability that he inherited – one that would have left the United States absolutely incapable of preventing the sorts of nuclear attacks that Iran and North Korea will soon be able to deliver. During his time in office, the United States has moved steadily toward the deployment of a shield against ballistic missile attack. This latest North Korean provocation should cause critics of Mr. Bush’s missile defense initiatives to recognize that we must now as a matter of the utmost urgency develop and deploy missile defenses in the places where they can do the most good at the least cost – namely, at sea and in space.

The bad news is that the Bush Administration has thus far failed to take another step essential if America is to be able to counter the threats of aggression increasingly emanating from Pyongyang and Tehran: We have yet to address the block-obsolescence to which the U.S. nuclear arsenal is effectively condemned in the absence of our own program of periodic, safe underground nuclear testing.

It is now unmistakably clear. Our restraint since 1992 in conducting such tests has not prevented other nations from engaging in such experimentation. (In addition to the incipient North Korean test, one must add those conducted by Pakistan and India a few years back). We can no longer safely defer the tests required to ensure that our present, aging nuclear weapons will work when they are supposed to and are as safe as we can make them so that they won’t work when they are not supposed to.

No less importantly, we must also conduct tests necessary to ensure that we can hold at risk such targets as our nuclear-armed enemies hold dear. This will also require a resumption of underground testing in order to design new nuclear forces to meet current and future challenges.

The Bottom Line

America ‘s elected representatives must recognize that our past restraint and misplaced reliance on diplomacy has only enabled the nuclear ambitions of states such as North Korea and Iran . Rather than continuing down the path of accommodation and appeasement, the United States must now take steps to contain and eventually to bring down the despotic regimes in Pyongyang and Tehran that threaten their own people and ours.