The ‘Black Colonel’ — Down, But Not Out: Alksnis Mulls Potemkin Coup, Sees Comeback

Col. Viktor Alksnis, one of the most prominent spokesmen for the Soviet old guard and leader of the Soyuz faction of the Supreme Soviet Parliament, became the latest in a series of prominent authorities on Kremlin intrigues to speculate openly that Mikhail Gorbachev may have been involved in orchestrating the recent abortive coup. Interviewed on the MacNeil-Lehrer NewsHour last night, the man widely known as the "Black Colonel" said:

"This whole thing is an enigma to me. I have certain doubts to the extent that this was a plot. I tend to think that it was more of a drama play and the stage director is still to be found….The information that I have read…about the role of Gorbachev causes very serious reflections, and the fact that Yelena Bonner, wife of Andrei Sakharov, stated that she is ready to take an oath claiming that it’s Gorbachev who was the director of this play, well, a lot has to be discussed and assessed."

 

 

Col. Alksnis went on to speculate darkly that those implicated in the coup may not live to reveal just who the "stage director" was:

"I…worry over the fact that we have been witnessing the beginning of the chain of suicides happening in this country, which leaves enough doubt to wonder what kind of suicides those were. For example * * * the pistol that [former Interior Minister and coup-conspirator Boris] Pugo shot himself with, firing into his mouth, was found a few yards away from his dead body. I do not believe that someone can [shoot] himself straight in the mouth and then find enough [strength] to wander over a few steps and put the pistol down and then come back, lie down and die. I simply do not believe in that."

 

 

"I do not exclude the possibility that, for example, this prison cell or whatever place the plotters are kept in, something might happen, like a meteorite may all of a sudden fall on this building or the UFOs would land and hijack the plotters."

 

In a chilling warning that the institutions with which he has long been associated — the KGB, the Communist Party and the military — have suffered serious reverses but do not yet consider themselves finally defeated, Alksnis observed:

"I’m convinced that the state of emergency will still be introduced in this country * * * I suppose that we have been defeated. But this is a tactical defeat. I am a military person and I know that the loss of one battle does not imply the loss of a war."

 

The Center for Security Policy believes that the Black Colonel’s remarks illustrate the point that the future course of events in the erstwhile Soviet Union remains subject to dramatic — and probably portentous — change without notice. As encouraging as the West should find the unravelling of the Communist Party, the dismantling of sinister Soviet central government institutions, the stampede for independence among the major republics, the collapse of the command economy and an attendant reorienting of the republics’ foreign relations, the reality is that these changes will for some time pose both new opportunities and new risks for U.S. and allied policy-makers.

While a peaceful and steady march towards the genuine transformation of the monolithic Soviet empire into independent, democratic and free market-oriented states is a possible — and obviously desirable — outcome of recent developments there, other outcomes are also very real possibilities. These include: civil war; anarchic economic disruptions; or a second, more successful grab for power by Alksnis and his ilk.

Consequently, the Center believes that it would be foolish to leap to the conclusion that the United States can safely regard its defense budget as a slush fund, available to be raided at will for aiding the Soviets or other initiatives ostensibly undertaken in the name of national security. Until the transformation of the USSR is an accomplished fact — enabling a wholesale restructuring of American military capabilities to be safely contemplated — the priority accorded U.S. defense spending should remain at least at its present level.