The Iran “Deal” – we crossed a bridge when we went to war – we can’t return to a reality that no longer exists
Originally posted by NTD News
Political relationships. American and Iranian Flag divided diagonally. Partnership and conflicts.
In the world of national security operations, practitioners understand the concept of bridges that can only be crossed in one direction. You need to think carefully about the decision you make, because afterward, if you regret it, you cannot simply reverse course and go back to where you were. You are stuck with the consequences.
We are about to find out just how true that is.
The United States and Iran have both indicated that they have reached an agreement to end hostilities. As best we can determine at this stage, these are the key elements of that deal, along with my commentary.
The Straits of Hormuz will be reopened to shipping. That is a welcome provision. It is also worth noting, however, that the Straits were not closed before this war. All the Iranians are agreeing to is a return to the pre-war status quo. We should also note that some Iranian commentary suggests they believe they will control the Straits and be paid for each vessel that passes through.
The Iranians will remove all mines they have placed in the Straits of Hormuz. Assuming there are any mines, the Iranians don’t know where they are. When the U.S. Navy emplaces a minefield, it meticulously records where each mine is and what type it is so that the minefield can be removed safely after hostilities. That’s not the way the rest of the world operates. I would not assume that all Iranian mines are actually tethered. Some of them may very well have just been dumped overboard and gone wherever the currents took them.
The U.S. Navy will lift the blockade within 30 days. If we have really won, then there is no need for a blockade, but once we lift it, what leverage we have over the Iranians vaporizes.
No new sanctions will be imposed while follow-on negotiations continue. Again, this is a concession from the United States that eases pressure on Tehran.
The U.S. will suspend current sanctions, allowing Iranian oil to be openly sold. That means a flood of cash into the coffers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. One can be sure that ships loaded with arms and material from China will be steaming into Iranian ports by the dozens, helping the ayatollahs rearm.
$25 billion in Iranian assets will be unfrozen. This is a potentially catastrophic misstep. The Iranians get a massive payoff, and we give up one of the biggest cards we have been holding. Should this deal fall apart, we will be back confronting the Iranians but from a significantly weakened position.
Both parties will formulate a reconstruction plan for Iran. This is a cover for reparations. It means we will now be in the position of bankrolling the rebuilding of a nation we just spent billions bombing. The Iranians are saying explicitly that we have agreed to pay them $300 billion.
Iran agrees it will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons. This is an absolutely meaningless provision. It has no teeth. The Iranians never abide by any agreements they have signed. They will not abide by this one.
The fate of the nuclear program, including the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, will be negotiated and finalized within 60 days. Again, this is a meaningless provision. The Iranians have pursued nuclear weapons for decades. They have lied their way through negotiations on that subject in every round of talks ever held. They will lie their way through these.
There will be full sanctions relief following a final agreement in 60 days. If we follow through on this, it will be a disaster. Iran will be free to expand its power and attack us worldwide, and we will have unilaterally disarmed. What you saw before the war in terms of Iranian worldwide jihadist arson will be as nothing compared to what you will see in the future.
In short, in exchange for Iran agreeing to allow shipping to transit Hormuz and promising to “talk about” a nuclear weapons program that they officially continue to deny even exists, we are going to pay tens of billions of dollars to these pirates, set them free from international sanctions, and take on the task of rebuilding their nation. This is some kind of twisted Marshall Plan for Iran, except skipping the part where we actually won, and the evil regime in power was toppled. This is signing a deal with Hitler in 1944, leaving him in power, and then helping him rebuild all those defense industries we just bombed.
I don’t typically put a lot of stock in what Press TV, an Iranian regime propaganda platform, spits out, but in this case, I think the Iranians are pretty close to the mark. We went into this war with the idea that we would topple the regime in Tehran in days and free the Iranian people. That was never going to happen, and frankly, it still boggles the mind that our entire intelligence and defense establishments either signed on to that fantasy or were told to shut up, sit down, and get with the program.
In any event, within a week, it became crystal clear that the “plan” was not working and that the center of gravity in this fight was the world economy, oil and gas supplies, and the Straits of Hormuz. We imposed a partially effective blockade and then simply stopped, waiting yet again for something that was never going to happen. Pundits blathered on about the limits of oil storage capacity in Iran, the downside of letting wells sit without pumping them, etc.
The Iranians were going to cry uncle any day. We need only sit and wait. There was no need to reevaluate our strategy. We had already won.
It sure doesn’t look like that now. Looks like we lost. That is certainly the way Iran sees it and, one suspects, so will a great many other nations. Iran will not emerge from this conflict chastened and wishing to rejoin the fraternity of civilized nations. It will come out the other side confident, emboldened, and determined to continue the Islamic world revolution even more aggressively than before.
We want this all to be over. What we are doing will guarantee that is not true. We crossed a bridge. We made a decision. We cannot return now to a pre-war reality that no longer exists.
This is not a deal we should want any part of, but I’m sure they are loving it in Tehran.
