The Lessons of Libya

To have somewhat of an accurate prediction of what may occur in the aftermath of the Syrian crisis, one must look at our past actions of a similar nature in the Libyan civil war and what occurred after our mission to depose Moammar Qadaffi was constituted a “success”. The U.S. role in supporting the Libyan opposition to topple the Qadaffi regime and the resulting turmoil of post-Qadaffi Libya should serve as a warning to what is likely to happen in Syria if the United States does not re-assess its current strategy.

The situation that developed in Libya shortly after the fall of Moammar Qaddaffi is a prime example of the blowback that can occur when Islamists are able to consolidate power after the fall of a long-standing centralized government. Thought Libya is not mentioned as often in the western media, the situation there is becoming increasingly volatile. In August 2014, the government lost the capital of Tripoli to a militant group from western Libya and has been operating out of Tobruk, a town east of Benghazi.

Ever since the official Libyan government lost the capital, the country has been ripe with sectarian violence and unrest. In early October 2014, the UN refugee agency reported that the increasing violence in Libya has displaced about 287,000 Libyans from their homes. The Libyan branch of Al Qaeda-affiliate Ansar al-Sharia, the same group that committed the attack against the U.S. Consulate in Benghazi, is now moving towards the city on a mission to take control and establish Sharia law.

These are the direct results of the destabilization of Libya facilitated by the U.S. government and is only getting worse. The same problem that currently exists with the composition of the rebel forces in Syria existed in Libya in 2011 and we can now see how the situation developed. Yes, the anti-U.S. leader Qadaffi is gone but at what cost? Is the situation in Libya really more ideal and friendly to U.S. interest? No, instead of instituting an effective regime change we created a failed state ruled by various militant factions. If the United States does not recognize the parallels between the situations in Libya and Syria, then the current crisis in Libya will occur ten-fold in Syria.