The New ‘Giant Sucking Sound’: Clinton’s Crumbling Iraq and Russia Policies

(Washington, D.C.): It turns out there is a “giant sucking sound,” after all. At the moment, it
is
not coming as Ross Perot suggested from the economic effects of North American Free Trade
Agreement. Rather, the sound you can currently hear in official circles in Washington is the sharp
intake of a collective breath as two pillars of what passes for a Clinton foreign policy come
crashing down.

Unraveling Iraq Policy

Scarcely a day goes by without fresh evidence that, contrary to repeated Administration
assurances, Saddam Hussein is not being “kept in his box.” For example, on
Monday he
dispatched Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister, Tariq Aziz, to Ankara in a transparent attempt to drive
a wedge between Turkey and the United States.

The Iraqis understand that there may be fertile ground for handing the Americans a severe
diplomatic and strategic reverse: Turkey has lost untold millions of dollars in oil revenues by
complying with the UN-mandated sanctions regime. Its public has become increasingly restive at
Ankara’s complicity in what is seen as economic warfare waged against the Iraqi people. And the
American government’s erratic behavior towards the Kurds of northern Iraq — working closely
with them one day, selling them out to Saddam the next — has fueled Turkey’s anxieties about the
serious threat posed to its own internal security by the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) separatists
operating from Iraqi territory. (It remains to be seen if this threat will be markedly alleviated now
that Turkey finally has the leader of PKK, Abdullah Ocalan, in custody.)

To make matters worse, Turkey senses with good reason that its U.S. and European
allies
inadequately appreciate the importance of having that nation’s democratic secular Muslim
government and powerful military promoting Western interests in a very troubled
region.
Indeed, NATO member states — largely in deference to the Greek’s historic and abiding hostility
towards their Turkish neighbors — have repeatedly taken steps that give offense to the latter and
that tend to drive them into the arms of common enemies like Saddam Hussein.

Against the possibility that shortsighted Western policies and Iraq’s latest overtures prove
inadequate to accomplish Saddam’s objective of dividing-and-conquering in Turkey, the Butcher
of Baghdad, had his vice president deliver a stern warning to the Turks on Monday (in the midst
of Tariq Aziz’s visit!): Turkey risked grave consequences should it allow the United States to
continue to use its Incirlik air base for the purpose of enforcing the northern no-fly zone and
destroying Iraqi air defense assets trying to down an American crew.

This warning that Turkey faced Iraqi attack came hot on the heels of similar threats issued
over
the weekend. Baghdad has served notice on Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and any Gulf State that
permits the U.S. or Britain to make similar use of their military facilities may experience Saddam’s
wrath. Unfortunately, since the United States has thus far chosen not to field the means
to
deploy anti-missile defenses to protect these (or other) friendly states, such threats must be
taken seriously.

Primakov’s Malevolent Agenda

Which brings us to the Administration’s second crumbling foreign policy pillar. Under Prime
Minister Yevgeny Primakov, the Russia that was supposed to be America’s partner in
international affairs is taking steps that will greatly increase Saddam Hussein’s ability to inflict
harm upon U.S. military personnel overseas and the allies they are defending.

That Primakov is so disposed should come as no surprise. Notwithstanding Madeline
Albright’s
assurances that he is a man we can do business with, this lifelong KGB operative has made a
career of implacably opposing the United States at every turn. According to press reports, he is
now personally drumming up business for Russia’s arms industry in ways calculated to conflict
with American interests. A case in point was a meeting last month between Primakov and Tariq
Aziz for the purpose of resuming Iraq’s purchase of substantial quantities of front-line weaponry
from Russia.

According to the London Sunday Telegraph, Primakov has authorized the sale of more than
$100
million in advanced fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles and other hardware that Saddam can
use to attack American and British pilots. If that were not bad enough, reflect on this reality: if
the Kremlin is willing to transfer this sort of highly visible material to Saddam in violation of
international sanctions regime, doesn’t it stand to reason that it is prepared to sell know-how and
equipment on which the Iraqi dictator places a special emphasis — and that could be relatively
easily concealed. Into the latter category would fall chemical, biological and/or nuclear
technology and that associated with missiles capable of delivering these weapons of mass
destruction over increasingly long distance.

Of course, Iraq is not the only tinderbox into which Russia is trying to introduce
high-tech
weapons. Primakov has tried to inflame Greek and Turkish enmity by inserting
advanced S-300
surface-to-air missiles into Cyprus. He is actively negotiating with Syria for the sale of such
missiles, Sukhoi-27 jet fighters and T-80 tanks. Meanwhile the preeminent pariah state, Iran, is
obtaining nuclear- and missile-related technology from Moscow, in addition to an infusion of
formidable conventional arms. The fact that such sales are going forward suggests that
Primakov’s Russia has completely discounted the U.S. government’s appeals for these
transactions to be suspended and its threats of modest sanctions if they are not.

The Bottom Line

With the bankruptcy of the present American policies towards Iraq and Russia now much in
evidence, there is no choice but to adopt different approaches towards both. With respect to Iraq,
time is clearly not on the United States’ side. Saddam Hussein must not be
given additional
opportunities to exploit the combined effects of bribes and threats in eroding the Iraq sanctions
regime, thereby providing a new lease on life and substantially enhanced military capabilities to his
regime. Nothing less than a wholehearted, urgent U.S. effort — undertaken in coordination with
the Iraqi National Congress and, as appropriate, other opposition groups — to create conditions
leading to Saddam’s removal from power will suffice.

Concerning Russia, the time has come to speak in the only terms that the likes of Yevgeny
Primakov understand — with the authority of power. The United States must make clear that
Russia can no longer have it both ways, undermining American interests in the Middle East and
around the world while benefitting from this nation’s financial largesse and political consideration.
An appropriate, if asymmetric, response would be to serve notice that the U.S. is going to
proceed to deploy anti-ballistic missile systems on AEGIS fleet air defense ships at the earliest
possible moment — a step prohibited by the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty but urgently needed
in light of Saddam’s latest threats. Nothing would more clearly demonstrate to Moscow — and
the world — that the United States is prepared to protect its vital interests, rather than rely on
unrealistic expectations of other’s good behavior to safeguard them.