The Philippines is hoping history doesn’t repeat itself, again

President George W. Bush once described himself as “a uniter, not a divider.”

China’s leader, Xi Jinping is a uniter as well…though in a different sort of way.

On April 11th, President Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos will meet in Washington, DC. This is the first such joint meeting.

And it’s Chinese pressure on both the Philippines’ and Japan’s maritime territory that is bringing everyone together.
Some meetings are more important than others. And this one’s important.

BACK TO THE FUTURE

The Philippines is fighting off aggressive Chinese encroachment on its maritime territory. It isn’t the first time, and last time it ended badly for the Philippines, in part because they didn’t get effective backing from the US.
In 2012, the Chinese grabbed Scarborough Shoal, which had long been claimed by Philippines.

The US did nothing when the Chinese broke their promise to then-Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell to withdraw its ships and instead remained to occupy Scarborough Shoal.

State Department lawyers presumably worked overtime to come up with excuses for why the mutual defence treaty didn’t apply.

The Filipinos were dismayed.

Then, in 2016 the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favour of Philippine claims and largely demolished Beijing’s claims. The Obama administration remained mostly mute—expecting the PRC would reciprocate the restraint.

It didn’t.

Instead, it dismissed the ruling as a piece of “scrap paper”.
Even worse, the Americans had encouraged the Philippines to bring the suit.

The Americans now have two strikes on them as far as many Filipinos are concerned.

TODAY

China is still on Scarborough Shoal. Now it is trying to make it difficult, if not impossible, for the Philippines to resupply its men who are stationed on a deliberately grounded Philippine Navy ship on Second Thomas Shoal, a location that is, as determined by the Court of Arbitration, well inside Philippines waters.

Beside bumping and blocking, the Chinese blast the Philippine ships with high power water hoses—causing structural damage and serious injury to crewmen—some of whom are Philippine military personnel.

The Chinese—including a PLA Navy helicopter—are also interfering with Philippines ocean research efforts elsewhere in Philippine waters.

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