The real Axis of Evil

In his 2002 State of the Union Address, President George Bush used the term "Axis of Evil" to describe the regimes of Iraq, Iran and North Korea, saying that all three countries were sponsoring terror and pursuing weapons of mass destruction. Since that groundbreaking speech, a new and potentially more dangerous "Axis of Evil" has emerged – China, Russia and Iran – that increasingly pose not only a threat to U.S. national security interests, but world peace and global stability as well.

But don’t blame President Bush for missing this important geopolitical shift. The new Axis of Evil has taken shape rapidly and somewhat unexpectedly. This Axis of Evil has surfaced not only as a result of the Iraq War and perceived U.S. hegemony, rather, its foundation has been built on a number of other important common-interest issues such as energy security, political ideology and a need reassert regional influence based upon historical precedent dating back almost two thousand years. Taken collectively, the continuing disruptive actions of China, Russia and Iran not only merit Washington’s attention, but also an immediate, well fashioned and definitive response.

Let’s examine the facts.

China has quickly become the elephant in the room that everyone – from Capital Hill politicians to senior Pentagon policymakers – wants to ignore but can’t. A laundry list of issues from the revaluation of the yuan that continues to severely damage the U.S. economy – to Beijing’s ongoing military modernization program aimed at confronting the U.S. in Asia and beyond – are slowly being recognized and addressed by the Bush administration, senior Pentagon officials and the U.S. Treasury Department.

Complicating matters, China’s successful January test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon against one of its own antiquated weather satellites raised the stakes in the ongoing battle between the U.S. and China over space supremacy. Indeed, the test proves China has taken another step in its quest to become a military power in space. Joint military exercises with fellow Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) member states and military exercises designed to simulate assaults on U.S. forces are becoming more difficult for the Bush Administration to ignore.

China’s escalating espionage activities in North America are also a matter for concern. Comments made by Chinese defector Chen Yonglin to Australian authorities in Sydney in the summer of 2005 noted that China is engaged in large-scale intelligence activities in the U.S. that have resulted in the country securing large amounts of classified U.S. information. "The U.S. is considered by the Chinese Communist Party as the largest enemy, the major strategic rival. The U.S. occupies a unique place in China’s diplomacy," noted Yonglin. Two other recent Chinese defectors to Australia have corroborated Chen Yonglin’s story. In addition, China’s ruling communist party continues to pursue the mandatory transfer of highly sophisticated, defense-oriented technologies by foreign companies to Chinese companies as a precursor for access to lucrative domestic markets, posing an even greater danger to U.S. national security. 

Beijing’s increasing appetite for oil, natural gas, water and minerals, as well as its quest to secure a variety of strategically located foreign assets such as seaports, have complicated Washington’s approach to the China problem.

Russia continues to sell sophisticated weapons systems to both Iran and China. President Vladimir Putin’s recent trip to the Middle East to conclude arms contracts with a number of Middle East states, as well as his actions to establish a powerful "gas cartel" demonstrates his overt willingness to undermine Washington’s interests in the region. Under Putin, the nationalization of Russia’s energy, media outlets and mineral industries has continued unabated, military ties to Central Asia countries has accelerated,  assassinations of political adversaries have become commonplace and the modernization of the country’s military has been given priority status. This week, an assertive President Vladimir Putin threatened to halt Russia’s compliance with the 1990 Treaty for Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), one of the key agreements that helped end the decades long Cold War stand-off between NATO and the Soviet bloc.

For his part, Iran’s nuclear-obsessed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has threatened Israel with annihilation several times over the past year and continues to fund Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria’s terrorist sympathizer President Bashar al-Assad. Ahmandinejad recently added the U.S. and Britain to his list of countries for destruction, saying both countries will be "imminently destroyed." Last month’s British hostage crisis and his inflammatory comments this week concerning the 1980 American hostage crisis where he stated God helped Iran "clobber Iran’s enemies" have only added to Ahmadinejad’s reputation as a confrontational and unstable leader.

What does it all mean?

The U.S. no longer finds itself in a bi-polar world with the Soviet Union as its primary enemy. No, today the U.S. finds itself in a world of multiple enemies. This means the prospect for a more devastating and widespread global conflict is greater than ever.

But instead of mustering the strength needed to confront this new Axis of Evil and a  growing number of subordinate countries, Washington has become fractured, demonstrating an unwillingness to "go the distance" in Iraq and showing an inability to respond with a clear foreign policy. Proposed negotiations with tyrants in Syria and Iran are viewed by Washington’s enemies not as a symbol of leadership or strength, but as a sign of weakness during a time of great geostrategic importance.

There is an underlying current of unrest today defined by new geopolitical realities which the new Axis of Evil embodies. Under this still developing paradigm, successful asymmetrical warfare, not a direct confrontation on the battlefield, is the immediate goal. But the gradual decline in power and influence of the world’s only legitimate superpower – the U.S. – has caught the attention of Tehran, Beijing and Moscow. As the U.S. becomes weakened by a barrage of coordinated, intense attacks on its economic, political and military infrastructure – and the Axis of Evil becomes stronger – the likelihood of a direct confrontation with one or more of these countries at some point in the future will grow.

Will America be prepared for its biggest challenge?