Turkey Presents a Danger in Northeast Syria

On Monday, President Trump shocked many by announcing a withdrawal of U.S. troops from Northeast Syria. In a series of tweets, the president endorsed Turkey’s invasion of Northeast Syria after threats from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. President Trump also announced that the Turkish government, along with Europe and other allies, will be responsible for the ISIS prisoners and their relatives currently held in Syria.

Many see this move as a blow to the SDF and U.S. interests in the region. The SDF, which includes members of the People’s Protection Unit (YPG), have been the most effective allies of the U.S. in the fight against ISIS. Currently, SDF fighters are the only group guarding the ISIS prisoners and relatives in camps in Northeast Syria. SDF personnel are outnumbered by ISIS fighters.

The Turkish invasion of Syria will further create problems in the region. The Turkish government has designated the YPG as a terrorist group and has repeatedly promised to attack Kurdish fighters in Syria, especially those close to its border. An attack on Kurdish fighters would pull away a significant portion of the already strained SDF fighters guarding the prisons and camps. This would aid the objectives of ISIS whose leader, Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has called for followers of the terrorist organization to foment prison breaks across Northeast Syria.

On Wednesday, Erdogan announced the Turkish military’s invasion of parts of Northeast Syria previously controlled by the SDF. Erdogan also announced that the Turkish military will attack the YPG and ISIS, with a goal of creating a safe zone to facilitate the return of Syrian refugees to Northern Syria. This defies the warning of President Trump who warned  that should Turkey attack the Kurds,  he would “totally destroy and obliterate” their economy. The U.S. Department of Defense announced that U.S. troops have been instructed to retreat from areas of “potential Turkish incursion to ensure their safety.”

Follwing the announcements, there are reports of Turkish military planes bombing strategic targets in the Kurdish majority town of Serekaniye. There have also been heavy artillery shellings in Tal Abyad, Qamishli, Malikiyah, and Ain Issa.

Seven civilians have reportedly been killed in the Turkish bombings, including Kurds and Syriac Christians.

Christian and Kurdish dominated populations have been severly bombarded by Turkish air-raids

Hours before Turkey’s incursion into Northeast Syria, Kurdish forces were attacked by an ISIS sleeper cell in Raqqa, a part of the SDF stronghold. A footage was released showing SDF fighters arresting members of the ISIS sleeper cell.

Though Turkey claims to be fighting against ISIS in its new ‘Operation Peace Spring’, it cannot be trusted to guard the ISIS prisoners and relatives. There have been reports of wiretaps, which exposed members of the Turkish intelligence agency, known as MIT, aiding and abetting an estimated 15,000 ISIS and al-Qaeda members to cross into Syria. Ankara has also largely ignored ISIS operations in the region, including on Turkish soil.

The damage that could ensue from Turkey’s incursion into Northeast Syria could benefit ISIS if a breakout of captured ISIS prisoners and relatives from the prisons and camps materializes. This would give ISIS thousands of extra fighters and accessories to further its abhorrent campaign. ISIS would also seek to use this benefit to re-establish its caliphate, which brings in a substantial amount of funding for the terror organization.