Turkey’s Erdogan Wins Re-election

On June 24^th, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won an absolute majority in his re-election bid. The Supreme Election Council of Turkey announced him the winner after receiving 53% of the popular vote. His primary opposition, Muharrem Ince, earned 31% of the votes and conceded the race Monday after complaining of unfair election conditions. International observers, some of whom were denied access, say the election was impacted by restricted freedoms of speech and assembly and unfair campaign coverage in the media. Turkish officials claim international observers were biased against Erdogan.

Erdogan’s victory gives him broad executive powers after a 2017 referendum drafted a new constitution. Among several changes, the new draft turns Turkey into a presidential system and dissolves the office of Prime Minister. It gives the President power to appoint ministers and judges and enact certain laws without parliament. Erdogan claims the new system will remove obstacles to Turkey’s progress, justifying his newly acquired powers.

In July of 2016, junior officers led a disorganized coup attempt which was suppressed within hours. Erdogan used the attempt to further consolidate his power and purge those he accused of supporting the coup. Since then, hundreds of thousands of military, police, academics, and reporters have been detained or dismissed on phony charges, including jailed American pastor Andrew Brunson and NASA scientist Serkan Golge.

Turkey’s transition into a dictatorship has been feared for years, based on Erdogan targeting reporters who expressed dissent. Censorship and other restricted freedoms are more common in Turkey now, too. Another key part of Erdogan’s agenda is the imposition of Shariah into daily life. Religious schools have increased exponentially and even non-Muslim students are automatically enrolled in some of these government-sponsored schools.

Turkey is a member of NATO and located at a key geographic location between Europe, central Asia and the Middle East. It could be an important U.S. ally in the Syrian war and the fight against the Islamic State, although current tensions are challenging the alliance. The U.S. partnered with Turkey to use Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey to conduct its air campaign against the Islamic State. The U.S. also maintains a nuclear arsenal there.

Erdogan’s Islamist agenda has strained relations with the U.S., while he improves ties with Russia. State-controlled Turkish journalists cite U.S. support for the Kurds in declaring that the U.S. is now an enemy to Turkey.

Turkish media and members of the parliament have also demanded the U.S. military be removed from Incirlik Air Base or else “thousands will siege” upon the base. This level of hostility poses a direct threat to U.S. forces and their ability to achieve strategic and tactical goals in the Middle East.

In response to growing tensions between the two countries, the U.S. Senate moved to block the sale of F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, although this has yet to be finalized into law. In the meantime, Turkey received two F-35s at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona, though they won’t be permitted to take them to Turkey until Turkish pilots have adequately trained with them.

Whether or not the sales go through, the debate around them is illustrative of the current relationship between Turkey and the U.S. Turkish officials have suggested they will coordinate with Russia if they are unable to acquire F-35s from the U.S. Turkey has already agreed to buy Russian S-400s, an anti-aircraft missile defense system. If Turkey also acquires F-35s, U.S. officials fear Russia will be able to collect data from Turkey’s S-400s and determine how to better target F-35s used by NATO partners.

Though the results came as no surprise, the reelection of Erdogan will have a damaging impact on U.S. goals in the Middle East. Rising Islamist and anti-American sentiments within Turkey could present a direct security threat to the United States or its allies in the region. The U.S. may be forced to find a new base of operations to wage its air campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

It must also consider the amount of support provided to the Kurds, who have been subjected to Turkish military operations in Kurdish-held territories Afrin and Manbij, which the U.S. and Turkey agreed to jointly administer. The U.S. has relied on the Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State, but now that the Islamic State’s caliphate has been largely defeated, the U.S. must decide between supporting the Kurds’ independence and angering the governments of Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and Syria, or angering the Kurds by improving ties with Turkey and Iraq.

Of equal significance is the balance between Iran, Russia, and Turkey. Iran opposes Turkish incursions into Kurdish territories because it may present a long-term threat to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who Turkey opposes, but Iran and Russia support. Russia, however, supported the operation, meaning the Iranians were alone in opposing it.

Meanwhile, in southern Syria, Russian jets backed Assad’s military strikes against rebel-held areas in Daraa, a border city near Jordan and Israel. The strikes came even after the U.S. warned Assad and Putin against it, though the U.S. also withdrew support for rebels in the area, revealing reluctance to increase involvement in Syria.

Overt aggression shown by Turkey, Russia and Syria in these matters poses a threat to U.S. allies and stability in the region. Iran is also attempting to exert its influence in the region, so the U.S. must carefully choose who to support to prevent Russia and Iran from controlling Middle East affairs.

Additionally, a closer Russian-Turkish relationship would jeopardize U.S. military capabilities against terror threats posed by jihadists. It also impacts U.S. nuclear presence in the region, as well as U.S. access in the Black Sea, where U.S. interests lie in energy and security concerns. Erdogan’s election victory complicates the issues faced by U.S. officials, who must carefully weigh the security threat from Islamist jihadists with the geopolitical threat from Russia and Iran.