Turkish elections, Russian plane crash, Pope visit to Africa, Russia in Europe…

Turkey’s AKP sweeps elections on Sunday

Turkey’s Islamist Justice and Development Party won Sunday’s elections in a sweeping victory, resulting in a reversion to a single-party ruling government. This victory will therefore surely boost current President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s influence and worsen divisions between the Islamists and secularists. AKP supporters insist that Erdogan is a “hero for the working class,” while secularists are apprehensive about his “authoritarianism and Islamist” principles.

Erdogan served as Turkey’s Prime Minister, resigning last year to become the country’s first “directly elected president.” The win is somewhat suspicious, considering the AKP lost its overall majority standing this past June. On Saturday, opinion surveys implied that the election would mirror June’s inconclusive result. The opposition is concerned about electoral fraud, particularly from tweets released by a government whistleblower, who released that “government figures had held regular meetings before the election exploring how to manipulate the result” and “AKP may try to manipulate the computer-based electoral record system.”

Among those supporting the victory is Hamas, who congratulated the Justice and Development Party declaring: “We in Hamas consider that these results…is a victory to Palestine because we trust that Turkey places results in favor of the service of the Palestinian cause.” The United States, however, has the opposite sentiment, as AKP is critical of US support for Kurdish militias fighting Islamic State. The win will likely make the United States’ strategy of using the Kurds as a force against IS with Turkish assistance more difficult than it already is.

Conflicting causes given for Russian plane crash in Sinai

Contradictory reports are claiming different causes for the Russian passenger jetliner crash in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula this past Saturday. Officials at Metrojet ruled out pilot or mechanical error, saying that an “external impact” would be the most likely cause of the airliner’s disintegration in mid-air. However, it may be too early to tell exactly what caused the crash, since Egyptian authorities have not released any transcripts or “black box” data. The fact that the debris is scattered over 8 square miles does indicate that the plane may have broken apart at a high altitude.

Meanwhile, an investigator claimed to Reuters that the plane “was not struck from the outside” and that while the inquiry is ongoing, a terrorist attack cannot be ruled out. The Islamic State’s Egyptian branch, Wilayat Sinai, posted a video and statement on social media saying that it was responsible for bringing down the jet, a claim that was dismissed by Russia and Egypt. Rampant weapons smuggling and sales from Libya have increased the Wilayat’s arsenal, but commentators point out that the MANPADS the IS is believed to possess have a maximum range of 15,000 feet, while the doomed airliner began experiencing issues at 31,000 feet. It may be awhile before a complete picture of what actually happened is determined.

Pope visit to CAR in doubt as violence increases

In what would be a historical first visit by a pope to an active conflict zone, the Central African Republic’s Christian religious authorities are confident that Pope Francis may still make his scheduled stop in Bangui as part of a three-nation tour that also includes Kenya and Uganda at the end of this month. The conflict between Christians and Muslims is downplayed by local religious leaders, but the fact that violence has increased since the Muslim Seleka militia seized power in 2013 is undisputable. Despite the fact that the Seleka was ousted a few months later, they are still actively opposing the government and seeking to return to power.

Due to the latest wave of killings, Pope Francis is hinting that he may not go to the CAR and is appealing for calm. A Reuters report states that he plans to visit a mosque in Bangui, which would be highly ill-advised at this time. The Seleka has not commented on the potential papal visit either to the country or the mosque, but a confirmation from the Vatican may stoke sectarian tensions.

Russian maneuvers in Europe keep the US busy

Navy European Commander Gen. Philip Breedlove is calling for an increased Navy and Intelligence operator presence in the European theater, highlighting the fact that intelligence gathering and deterrence capabilities have decreased since the end of the Cold War. In a bid to obtain hard currency to fund these and other projects, Moscow has been increasing its arms sales to the MENA region, creating additional areas of concern to the US military.

While the world’s attention is focused on Russia’s involvement in Syria, Europe is potentially the next battleground between Russia and the West. In a worrying development, the US Navy is concerned that Russian spy ships and submarines are operating too close to underwater cables that cross the Atlantic carrying internet and phone communications. The Russian vessels are believed to be engaged in probing and reconnaissance missions to determine vulnerable points as well as the American response.

Another area of concern for Pentagon military planners is the Arctic region, with its vast untapped mineral and oil deposits. Reporting indicates that Russia is increasing its commitment in the form of “four new Arctic brigades, 50 airfields by 2020, increased long-range air patrols by Russian bombers and a total of 40 conventional and nuclear icebreakers, with 11 more planned.” At the same time, US military budget cutbacks are set to take effect, reducing the cold-weather trained troops stationed in Anchorage by 2,600.

Other stories we’re following:

Poll shows majority of Russians fear another Afghanistan in Syria

Bangladeshi secular publisher killed, al-Qaeda claims responsibility

China conducts military drills in response to US Navy sailing off artificial islands

Pakistan’s ruling party wins majority in local elections, according to unofficial results

Guilty pleas from New York and Illinois suspects charged with trying to join IS

White House plans response to solar storm

Iran shutting down uranium enrichment centrifuges

Double explosion in Tanzania’s Zanzibar following disputed election

Iraq parliament votes to bar government from passing reforms without approval

Libya accuses Italian navy of violating maritime territory

Egyptian authorities have been preventing citizens from leaving country, according to Human Rights Watch