U.S.-led coalition air strike to block Islamic State

A US-led coalition carried out an air strike on August 30^th to block Islamic State fighters from reaching eastern Syria after they were evacuated from Lebanon-Syrian border. The fighters were heading for the town of Al Bukamal, which borders Iraq. The area bordering Iraq where the convoy was headed is currently under control of Islamic State.

The evacuation was carried out as part of a deal between Islamic State fighters and Iranian-backed Lebanese Shia terrorist group Hezbollah and the Syrian government, to clear an estimated 300 IS fighters and 300 civilians, primary the wives and children of IS, from the Lebanon-Syrian border. IS claimed they would reveal the fate of nine captive Lebanese soldiers that were being held since 2014, as well as surrender Hezbollah and Syrian army prisoners and bodies from eastern Syria, where IS continues to maintain hold over territory.

The U.S. coalition bombing cratered a road and a small bridge and targeted Islamic state vehicles in an effort to prevent movement.

The location of the convoy group is currently unknown, and could either be in Islamic State or Syrian government controlled territory.

The deal to transport IS members and their families came at the end of a joint Hezbollah and Syrian army military operation to dislodge jihadist groups from the Lebanese-Syrian border by directly targeting IS near the town of Ras Baalbek with rockets, artillery and helicopters. The Lebanese Army in cooperation with Hezbollah and the Syrian army also declared a cease-fire, to allow for the terrorist movement through Syria.  This  deal marks the first time the Islamic State has negotiated a forced evacuation for its fighters.

Hezbollah made a statement this August pledging to remove, and fight the terrorists with the Syrian army.

The Iraqi prime minister Haider al-Abadi faulted Syria for moving the IS fighters closer to their border. In a statement made on August 29^th he said, “we do not send them to Syria we kill them in Iraq.”

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called the deal made with the Islamic State to transport the terrorists, “a great victory” in speech on August 28^th. Despite his prior allegations made earlier in August to expel and fight the terrorist group with the Syrian army, the two groups continued with the deal.

The Islamic State’s foot hold is dwindling. At its peak throughout 2014 and 2015, the jihadist group held 1/3 of territory in Iraq and 1/3 of the territory in Syria. Within this landmass the terrorists ruled over around 9 million people.

By 2016 two years later, IS lost about 22% of its territory and in 2017 it continues to decrease. After Mosul was liberated and returned to the Iraqi government this past summer by American forces, the next critical fight to diminish IS looks to the city of Raqqa.

The battles over Raqqa began this past June of 2017. Raqqa is the self-proclaimed capital of the Islamic State currently. In the first month of fighting 20% of the city was taken back by the Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces, both aided by the U.S. Special operations troops. Unlike Mosul, Raqqa is much less densely populated, but it is still a critical location to obtain.

The Lebanese and Syrian governments should not be permitting the movement of the terrorist organization. The U.S. led airstrike was necessary for this deal to dismantle. By allowing for the movement of the terrorist group knowingly can prolong battles, allow for the group to regain territory and plan for strategic moves in the future. The current situation to question is the amount of U.S. funding toward the Lebanese army.

This year the U.S. has allotted to give Lebanon 233 million dollars in aid, partially to counter balance Hezbollah, the civil war, and for humanitarian support. However, the Lebanese army working in cooperation to Hezbollah calls to question their motives. As Syria and Iraq are gradually gaining back territory from IS, there are several players looking to gain these areas of land.

Iran is backing Syrian President Bassar al-Assad’s Syrian Army and Hezbollah. The United States backs the Syrian democratic forces, the Lebanese army, and the Kurds in Syria and Iraq. Although the U.S. supports some “rebel” groups, the first intentional attack on the Syrian government only occurred this past April, after the Assad regime fired chemical weapons.

Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of Iraq’s state-sanctioned Popular Mobilization Forces, a U.S. designated terrorist with ties to Hezbollah, supported Nasrallah’s decision to allow for IS movement. And while the United States backs the Lebanese army, the support provided by the Lebanese to Hezbollah is concerning.

The decision by Syria and Hezbollah to permit the movement of IS jihadis closer to the border of Iraq should be viewed within the context of the competition between U.S. coalition and Iranian-backed forces to control territories newly liberated from the Islamic State.

Assad’s regime is looking to retake key territory, even while U.S. backed Syrian Democratic Forces continue to advance in Northern Syria. On the Iraqi side of the border Kurdish peshmerga are still pressing forward with their long effort to establish a Kurdistan while Iranian-backed Shia militias have engaged in population transfers to expand Shia controlled areas. At the same time the Iraqi government is looking to regain their final pieces of territory from IS, which consists of a small region that borders Syria, and some desert space in the northern region.

On August 31^st, the Nineveh province in Iraq was liberated, as Tal Afar was lost from IS, and regained by the Iraqi armed forces.  Tel Afar was a key route between Iraq and Syria since 2014 and was the last major center in northwestern Iraq controlled by the IS, recently captured by Iraqi forces.

As IS held territory continues to shrink there’s an increased probability that U.S. and Iranian-backed forces will come into conflict.