Ukraine Anticipating Russian Offensive

Blog Post: Ukraine Anticipates Russian Offensive

Ukrainian Anti-Terrorist Operation spokesperson, Andriy Lysenko, stated that Ukraine is on high-alert awaiting an offensive by the Russian army to begin at any time.

In the past week, rebel and Russian military troop movements within the Russian-annexed Crimea and along the Eastern border of the country suggest a mobilization of forces that may preface invasion.

According to a Ukrainian Anti-Terror Operation spokesman an attack is expected “at any time,” while other officials added evidence of the expected offensive from the repositioning of equipment and border crossings at uncontrolled sections.

The Anti-Terror Operation is the Ukrainian unit devoted to responding to the Russian-backed separatists.

In northern Crimea, Russian troops are allegedly carrying out military maneuvers conjoined with the closing down of all entry checkpoints into the annexed territory, possibly illustrating a military preparation.

On Sunday, the Russian occupyiung authorities in Crimea suspended operations at checkpoints along the administrative border between Russia-annexed Crimean and mainland Ukraine. Later, only one checkpoint, Chonhar, resumed operations, and created a transportation filter that simplified Russian oversight of traffic in and out of the territory.

In addition to the closing down of checkpoints, evidence for Russian preparation for attack came from online videos, such as one posted on YouTube which shows a train carrying tanks, mobile SAM units, and several trucks.

#Breaking: Train moving towards #Kerch ferry, #Crimea from #Krasnodar, #Russia with military equipment. pic.twitter.com/1gMzCs1c9r

— Mikhail D. (@Eire_QC) August 9, 2016

The video surfaced from an independent reporter who operates in Ukraine and covers the Ukrainian civil conflict.

Similar signs of Russian mobilization came from YouTube footage of Alim Aydamak, who filmed the shipment of what appear to be Russian “Bastion” missile systems heading into Crimea. The “Bastion” is a sophisticated multipronged armored unit designed to engage surface ships, landing craft, and conduct electronic countermeasures. If truly shipped to Crimea, the delivery of these missile systems could significantly aid Russian defense along the Black Sea.

Most recently, on Tuesday, August 9th, reports from Twitter indicated internet outages in Northern Crimea, similar to those that have occurred previously in Ukraine due to cyberattacks.

Currently the Anti-Terrorist Operation is monitoring the situation in Crimea and Eastern Ukraine intently. The worn-torn country is also preparing its reserves to repel a possible attack. Vladyslav Seleznev, the speaker of Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed forces, confirmed that Ukraine has began to deploy armored units near the border of Crimea in response to a Russian military build-up in recent days.

Ukraine views the Russian preparations as likely indicators for an imminent attack. While it is possible that Ukrainian forces may be overreacting to the military movements linked to Russia’s upcoming Kavkaz-2016 exercises, the exercises are reportedly intended to demonstrate “Russian Armed Forces’ capabilities for protecting national interests in the south-western direction amid the uneasy international military and political situation.” Kavkaz-2016, much like West’s NATO exercises in Poland, attempt to bolster military prowess and illustrate the determined and prepared nature of ground, air, and sea combat.

Ultimately the Russian movements and Ukrainian response highlight the tense nature of armament and mobilization along Ukrainian borders.