Japan flag waving in the wind
Eight years ago, the United States had a new president, Donald Trump. This writer wrote some advice for the then-new ambassador headed to Japan – and then, four years later, sent more suggestions for President Biden’s then-unnamed top envoy to Tokyo.
Now President Trump is back and a new ambassador, George Glass, will likely be confirmed and sent to Tokyo.
In the spirit of foisting off – on a bipartisan basis – unasked-for advice, I offer my counsel again. And if past is prologue, it won’t be the first time this writer’s advice has been ignored.
February 27, 2025
Dear Ambassador ……..,
You will no doubt study up on the issues and receive more briefings than you can absorb, but here is some unsolicited advice anyway:
You’ll hear that the US-Japan relationship is the “most important bilateral relationship, bar none.” It is. You’ll also hear that “it has never been stronger.” You might ask, “Compared with what?”
Strong doesn’t mean it’s strong enough.
Is it deterring the PRC? Not if you consider aggressive Chinese behavior. And if it’s not deterring, can we fight together and defeat the People’s Liberation Army? Maybe not, even though the Japan-US defense alliance is 65 years old.
The US-Japan relationship is an old one and we get along well enough. But Japan’s longstanding pathologic dependence on the United States for its defense weakens the entire structure.
There is of course more to the relationship than the military angle, but that is the most important part. Here are a few things to consider.
Don’t pick a fight with Japan over host nation support funding – as your boss, Mr. Trump, has in the past suggested he would — even if Japan can afford to pay ten times more. Tell Japan to keep its money and spend it on Japan Self Defense Force training and decent housing for the troops.
Most of all, America needs a Japan that can fight. That means more combat power from the JSDF, and it needs to better align and integrate this combat power with US forces. The JSDF needs to improve and it needs to be able to operate much better with US forces.
Just because things are better than they were ten years ago – when even saying the JSDF might need to fight a war gave too many alliance managers on both sides the vapors – doesn’t mean things are anywhere near where they need to be.
The JSDF and Japan itself are not ready to fight a war – no matter what you are told. A few good niche capabilities (submarines, anti-submarine warfare, missile defense and outer space) aren’t enough.
A more capable and powerful military reduces Japan’s dependence on the US military, relieves the burden on US forces defending Japanese interests farther afield and potentially augments overstretched US forces in the region.
And don’t forget the political knock-on effects of more effective Japanese forces, solidly linked and able to operate with US forces. China was counting on splitting the US and Japan alliance. American and Japanese forces operating together makes this much harder to do.
Read more HERE.
