US Needs a Strategy for the Collapse of the Assad Regime

Adding to the complexity of the current chaos in Syria and Iraq, the Jerusalem Post reported this week that Syria’s Assad regime may be on the brink of collapse.

Syria has faced four years of civil war and 200,000 deaths. Multiple rebel offenses have taken key cities such as Idlib. There is a concerted rebel effort making its way towards Damascus in the South.

Danielle Pletka, Senior Vice President for Foreign and Defense Policy Studies of the American Enterprise Institute, gave a dire outlook for Syria when she wrote this week that

“The facts are straightforward: rebel forces have been advancing on government/Hezbollah/Iranian-held towns with growing success. Led by al Qaeda ally Jabhat al Nusra (JN) in coordination with a mishmash of other Islamist groups, Assad’s opponents appear to be consolidating their hold over Idlib province, and are making gains elsewhere around the country. And, as multiple analysts have noted, at the same time that JN et al appear to be coordinating more effectively (while shutting out ISIS and its allies), Assad’s own forces seem to have lost the will to fight.”

The Syrian military has dropped by half due to high rates of casualties and desertions. As a result, it is increasingly relying on foreign fighters, many trained and armed by Iran.

The collapse of the Assad government would make Syria a greater threat to regional security than it is today since there is a strong possibility it would be taken over by Isis and Al Qaeda and become a terrorist safe haven..

The Obama administration’s strategy for Syria has been incoherent. It needs to come up with contingency plans in case the Assad government collapses so the country does not become another Iran or Libya.