Violence in Qalamoun Mountains erupts; tension in Lebanon grows

Early last week, a coalition of Syrian rebels, including Al Qaeda-linked Jabhat Al Nusra and Ahrar Al-Sham, together with other primarily Islamist Syrian militias, with the intentions of marching on Damascus. al-Nusra, also known as al-Qaeda in Syria, has recently joined forces with the Islamic State in the outskirts of Damascus in hopes of carrying out a march on the Syrian capital that would result in military supply lines being cut off, resulting as a huge loss for Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime. The coalition sparked battles on the Syrian border, eventually pouring into Lebanon. When al-Nusra launched a preemptive attack on Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shi’ite terrorist group, the group retaliated with an ambush of an al-Nusra convoy inside Lebanon’s borders.  Although a response from the Lebanese government and military is not expected, Lebanese officials warned against a “cross-border” assault as the nation recently fought its own civil war in 1975 through 1990.

Much of the fighting has occurred in the Qalamoun Mountain region of Syria, an area used as a supply route for Syrian insurgents and as a strategic area that looks over Syrian towns with a strong Hezbollah presence. Close to 3,000 militants are based in the Qalamoun region, with numbers evenly split between al-Nusra militants and Islamic State militants. Al-Nusra, also known as al-Qaeda in Syria has recently joined forces with the Islamic State in the outskirts of Damascus. Last week, as Hezbollah vowed to clear Syrian rebels from the area, it seized mountainous terrain once controlled by al-Nusra, including training camps and hideouts. In response to Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon, and attacks on al-Nusra territory, the Sunni group has released a video of seven Lebanese hostages begging Shi’ites to “stand up” to Hezbollah before a full out war breaks out in Lebanon. Lebanon has seen a resurgence of its sectarian conflict throughout the Syrian civil war. Lebanon’s Sunni Muslim population has tended to support Syrian rebels, whereas the country’s Shi’ites have supported the Assad regime. As a result, civil unrest and violence have erupted amongst Lebanese cities.

Hezbollah, a proxy of Iran and an ally of Assad, claims to be defending Lebanon and its people, but it is primarily motivated with maintaining its routes of resupply from Iran and Syria. There is growing concern that Hezbollah may be planning to launch attacks on refugees seeking asylum in Lebanon as its leader recently stated it would begin an operation to eliminate terrorists in Lebanon who are disguised as refugees. With over one million Syrians taking refuge in Lebanon, an attack on refugee areas could result in increased sectarian violence in an already unstable Lebanon.