War drums in the Middle East?

By Clay Varney

As the dog days of summer begin to make their presence known here in Washington, the White House has been busy battling members of its own party over the course of the president’s strategy in Iraq. However, the current action in the nation’s capital is obscuring some more menacing developments in the Middle East. As the temperature spikes here, the ominous situation in that volatile region appears to be picking up the pace.

The Turkish army has reportedly placed 140,000 troops along its border with northern Iraq. In what may be the latest outbreak of fighting in a long insurgency dating to the 1980’s, Turkey may be looking to invade the Kurdish areas of Iraq in the north in order to combat the presence of the PKK, a terrorist organization that often launches cross-border raids and bombings, and potentially more long term, in order to have a say over the status of Kurdistan’s political status within Iraq. This region has so far been the most stable area of the country. Such a Turkish invasion would of course destabilize Kurdistan and severely complicate relations between the United States and Turkey, two NATO allies. Whether or not the Turks would need or even seek American approval before such an invasion remains to be seen.

This summer might also witness a repeat of the Hamas putsch in Gaza replayed in Lebanon. Hezbollah, in its strange alliance with General Michel Aoun, a Christian, has made no secret of its desire to overthrow the democratic and Western-backed government of Fouad Siniora. Lebanese politics have increasingly begun to look like a Mafia clan war, as several anti-Syrian politicians have been assassinated in what is an obvious attempt to chip away at Siniora’s majority in parliament. However, certain developments have led to open speculation that an outright civil war or an attempt to topple the government by force is likely to soon break out. The Middle East Media Research Institute has reported that Syria has ordered its civilians residing in Lebanon to return home by July 15. Further, it has also been widely reported that Hezbollah is busy rearming and returning to its positions in southern Lebanon behind the ineffectual backs of UNIFIL. A rehash of last summer’s war between Israel and Hezbollah could also be in the offing. Finally, Syria has also decided to remove military checkpoints on the road to the Golan Heights. These checkpoints have been in place for 40 years.

On another front, the Iranian regime’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons continue apace. The government of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has recently instituted gasoline rationing among its civilian population, triggering massive popular unrest. Though in some venues this has been interpreted as a method for allaying the population’s reliance on subsidized gasoline, such measures may in fact be intended to ensure that the military possesses enough gasoline in any upcoming conflict. In related news, the United States Navy has dispatched the USS Enterprise to the Persian Gulf, which would be its third aircraft carrier in that tiny body of water.

Back in the United States, the threat of a terrorist attack has reached a disturbing level. ABC News reported that al Qaeda is in the midst of planning a “summer spectacular,” a large scale terrorist strike akin to 9/11. The level of intercepted chatter and intelligence is said to be on the level with that which occurred prior to the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon. With the recent plots disrupted in the United Kingdom, it has become increasingly apparent that the menace of Islamist terrorism is not going away any time soon.

Clearly, these developments should not be taken lightly. The United States, whether it wanted to be or not, is now engaged in a shadow war with Iran and its allies, Syria, Hezbollah, and Hamas. The previous discussion does not even mention Iran’s obvious interference in Iraq and its obvious supply of weapons to insurgent groups that have used these weapons to kill American soldiers. The course of this summer will have a huge impact on the region, as it will likely determine which side has the upper hand, America and its allies, or an expansionist Iran. Despite the concern in Washington over Iraq strategy, Congress must be careful to not see the forest for the trees. Though Iraq is a vital part of the United State’s current struggle, it is just one part of a larger battle, an encounter against an increasingly assertive Iran, whose people are beholden to a regime imbued with a dangerously apocalyptic worldview, preoccupied with trying to expand its power in the Middle East at American expense.