WARNING: CONGRESS MUST SPIKE U.S. COMMITMENTS ON DOLLARS, TROOPS FOR SYRIA NOW OR INVITE PEACE PROCESS MELT-DOWN

(Washington, D.C.): As Secretary of State Warren Christopher prepares to embark on yet
another trip to Mideast capitals in the hope of brokering a peace agreement between Israel and
Syria, there are increasing signs that secret negotiations are bearing potentially poisonous fruit.
Earlier this week, CNN broadcast a report quoting unnamed diplomatic sources which, according
to Reuters, “said Syria and Israel were negotiating a proposal to completely demilitarize a 10
kilometer (six-mile)-wide strip between their forces, with an additional three kilometers (two-miles) on either side to be partially demilitarized.”

The Israeli government has gone to considerable lengths to disavow this report. The
official line in Jerusalem has been that it smacks of Syrian disinformation, a move designed to
improve the diplomatic environment in advance of the Christopher mission. In the words of
Prime Minister Rabin, “As far as I know, this was a leak from sources close to the Syrians.”

Fool Me Once…

Such statements are ominously reminiscent of repeated denials issued by the Rabin
government as rumors circulated in the summer of 1993 concerning secret negotiations and
“breakthroughs” with the PLO. The ebullient — albeit fleeting — reaction to news of the Oslo
accord evidently allowed those who made these pronouncements to avoid being held to account
when they were proven to be untrue. Could such misleading disclaimers once again be the
prelude to a new, and even more problematic, accord?

In this regard, it is worth noting that, on 27 February, Israeli Deputy Foreign Minister
Yossi Beilin made his own bid to influence the negotiating climate in advance of the Christopher
trip. Beilin averred that the negotiations with Syria “are quickly approaching the red line in
terms of reaching a breakthrough.” According to Israel Line — a publication of the Israeli
government — Mr. Beilin “said he believes U.S. Secretary of State Warren Christopher’s
upcoming visit to the region may lead to a breakthrough on the Syrian track.”

At What Price a Breakthrough?

For some time, it has been made clear that a “breakthrough” on the Israeli-Syrian
diplomatic front will be modelled upon the Egyptian-Israeli agreement forged at Camp David.
Until recently, this point has been made primarily in connection with the notion of deploying
American troops on the Golan Heights in a peacekeeping role said to resemble that being
performed by U.S. troops in the Sinai today. As previous Center for Security Policy analyses ⁽¹⁾
have indicated, such a deployment would be highly controversial insofar as it would put at
risk those Americans involved, compromise Israeli security and cause potentially serious
harm to the U.S.-Israeli relationship.

Yesterday, however, White House Press Spokesman Michael McCurry inadvertently
highlighted a new — and non-starting — element of the Egyptian-Israeli model that is apparently
also in the offing: A large commitment of U.S. tax-dollars to Hafez Assad’s regime that would
correspond to the financial lubricant America has paid out to Egypt since 1979. According to
today’s Washington Post, McCurry described a phone call President Clinton received recently
from Prime Minister Rabin:

“Rabin called to express his concern about a House GOP subcommittee action to reduce
from $275 million to $50 million funding for debt forgiveness for Jordan. ‘The Prime
Minister said that if we get into a situation where the United States, having made
commitments to the Middle East peace process, [is] suddenly reneging on those
commitments, it could be harmful not only to the process of peace as it exists between
Jordan and Israel but for the entire process.'”

The Bottom Line

Members of the House Appropriations Committee were not amused by Mr. McCurry’s
remarks — or by the incompetent manner in which the Clinton Administration handled this
request for debt relief as part of an emergency supplemental. They are sure to be even more
furious over the commitments Mr. Christopher and his colleagues apparently intend to offer
Syria. Indeed, unless that Committee and other Members of Congress serve formal notice
that they will not support vast sums in financial life-support for a totalitarian, drug-dealing, terrorist-sponsoring regime like Hafez Assad’s, they are sure to find themselves
faced with more than just pleading phone calls from Prime Minister Rabin.

Unfortunately, the following scenario is entirely predictable: Israel will make a highly
risky strategic withdrawal in the interest of peace. Syria will agree to a deal that not only nets it
the Golan but also executive branch promises of large infusions of U.S. aid. When the aid is not
forthcoming — as it surely will not be — there will be a general unravelling, including in all
likelihood the assassination or kidnapping of American troops on the Golan.

Those in Congress who are committed to a real peace between Israel and Syria have not
only an interest but also a responsibility to ensure that such a peace is not based on an
unsupportable foundation of U.S. troops or tax-dollars. Doing otherwise is to invite war, not
promote a durable peace.

(1) See for example the Center’s Study, U.S. Troops on the Golan Heights: An Assessment of the Costs and Benefits
released 25 October 1995.