Warnings of Civil War in Central African Republic

As tensions have eased, barricades in Bangui, capital of the Central African Republic, have been lifted. However, experts warn that the country could still enter into civil war if the latest violence is not controlled. Interim President Catherine Samba Panza returned to the capital from the UN General Assembly after clashes last weekend left 36 dead and 30,000 fleeing their homes. Amidst the violence, nearly 500 prisoners have also escaped from a local prison.

Demonstrators along the barricades called for Samba Panza’s resignation and the removal of the UN peacekeepers as well as the French military force. Members of the anti-balaka attempted to line the airport in order to prevent Samba Panza’s plane from landing as she rushed back after receiving word of the violence. The anti-balaka are a mix of local vigilante Christians, Animists, and loyalists to the former President Bozize who oppose the violent Sudanese backed Saleka who took over in 2013. The presidential and legislative elections, which were scheduled for October, have once again been delayed. Experts have warned that the country is not ready to vote and that it would be dangerous to do so in the current unstable military condition. Samba Panza has blamed the unrest on former politicians.

Fighting had broken out after the discovery of a man’s body near a mosque. Residents say that the body had been mutilated, increasing fears that he had been killed because he was Muslim. Members of the Muslim community then attacked a Christian neighborhood, killing 34 people and destroying districts. During the previous conflict, tens of thousands of Muslims left the country.

The violence between Christians and Muslims has left 5,000 dead and displaced nearly 1 million. On Tuesday, UN peace keepers clashed with militia fighters in the capital and helicopters from the French mission fired on militants near the airport. The peacekeepers and French soldiers have begun removing the barricades that protestors set up on major thoroughfares and around the airport. France has pledged to send 1,000 troops declaring that the situation is on the verge of genocide.

The US has remained more cautious about giving an assessment of the situation. The UN’s independent expert on CAR warned that there was a risk of the situation leading to a civil war if the violence is not brought under control. In a broadcasted address last week, Samba Panza appealed to peace and asked for citizens to return to their homes. One in ten Central Africans (460,000 people) have sought refuge outside the country.

The violence over the past two weeks has been the worst since 2013, when the political crisis was on the verge of spinning out of control and refugees exceeded 400,000. The Muslim group Seleka had seized power and was subsequently ousted, which sparked a wave of violent conflict.

Though the violence in CAR transcends religious categories, the Islamist regime in Khartoum is involved and gains by portraying it as a Muslim vs Christian battle. Sudan backs the Seleka and while religious categories do not account for the complexities behind the unrest, for Khartoum the dividend will come as it will back any Islamists that can either take power by force (such as the Seleka) or obtain influence in CAR through seats in an eventual parliamentary government.

French troops and African Union peacekeepers were sent to the country in late 2013. The mission has been viewed negatively following the accusations of the military sexually abusing children. Central African children told UNICEF and other UN officials of the assaults by French soldiers around the M’Poko airport between December 2013 and June 2014. About 16 French soldiers were abusing 10 boys between 8 and 15 years old.

Following the killing of one of the peacekeepers, the UN spoke out condemning any violence in Central Africa. The Security Council has announced that it may deem any attacks on peacekeepers as war crimes. As the violence continues in the Central African Republic, aid continues to be blocked. Although the situation has calmed down somewhat, the aid agencies have deemed the area to be too volatile to enter. Without the aid agencies, supplies such as medicine, fuel, and food are diminishing.

A few shops have opened, showing tentative signs of a return to normal. Residents say that a level of calmness has returned but tensions remain. A curfew is in place and public transportation has resumed operating. Interior Minister Modibo Bachir Walidou has reported that the government is in control, but the situation remains volatile.