What to do about Venezuela

Easy area for U.S. to navigate. Latin America is easy territory for the U.S. to navigate with all its instruments of statecraft. Much of the traditional opposition to Washington is emotional and rhetorical, particularly when the U.S. gives little reason to risk one’s political career by being a friend or ally.

Multilateral action possible without the UN. There is no need for United Nations’ involvement. The Organization of American States (OAS) is the logical venue for debate and multilateral action; it is one of the oldest transnational organizations in the world, is strongly accepted throughout the hemisphere, it affords regional legitimacy, and it keeps decision-making among the countries of the Americas. The OAS has the power to expel member states that do not attempt to live up to basic democratic principles, as it has with Cuba. Brazil and other countries have proven to be reliable and effective partners in peacekeeping operations in countries where democracy is inherently unstable, including in the Caribbean basin that Venezuela shares.

Information warfare bonanza. On the information front, Venezuela is an information sieve, a gusher of facts that, when effectively collected and presented to the public, would alarm all but the most intransigent of skeptics, peel away internal and external support from the regime, and cry out for immediate action. To date, the U.S. government has not mustered these arguments and facts, but it is not difficult to do so. Public education is key. The United States must expose the Venezuelan regime and raise awareness of the importance of a new strategy to counter the existing threats. Before addressing the problem posed by Venezuela it is necessary to recognize it as a problem. The U.S. should also consider jointly funding or requesting research from Latin American think-tanks regarding their relationship and knowledge about government affairs.

A unified front is possible. Further, any Venezuela strategy must necessarily involve the participation of other Latin American governments. A united front against the hemispheric threat posed by the Venezuelan government is essential. The Venezuelan government would much prefer a bipolar conflict. Its self-proclaimed moral high ground disintegrates when other hemispheric actors become involved.

Psychological advantages. Any Venezuela strategy must avoid providing the dictator with pretexts that would inflate his popularity and prestige – and exploit his psychological instability – or justify his repression and militarization. The U.S. must avoid enhancing his prestige by assiduously not naming him. It must avoid the look of a personal battle with the American president or a U.S. grab for oil, as any move doubtlessly will be portrayed. Already, at the instigation of Cuba, the Venezuelan dictator is accusing the U.S. of plotting to assassinate him.

Senior Analyst for Strategy

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