A United States military officer serving in the Pacific asked if this at least was a good thing?
My answer: Yes, it is better than thermonuclear war, but not as important as one might think.
One fairly asks how 40+ years of unrestrained engagement and communication with the People’s Republic of China worked out?
There were basically no limits to our communications with the PRC during that 40 years’ time ー until the Trump administration came along.
During this multi-decade gabfest, the Chinese communists built a nation and a military that potentially can defeat the United States. That didn’t happen by accident. It was Beijing’s objective all along.
So if we start talking again, is this supposed to lead to improved Chinese behavior? If so, someone needs to explain how.
Recognizing Divergent Goals
Will China give up on its goal of pushing us out of the region and ultimately dominating the United States? Unlikely. And nobody imagines these days it will lead to a liberalized China – as all the earlier talk and getting to know each other was supposed to do.
But at least it “stabilizes” the US-PRC relationship, doesn’t it?
No. That’s a fallback rationalization when you’ve achieved nothing much and are out of ideas. Sort of like claiming 20 years, $2 trillion USD, and thousands of casualties in Afghanistan was a success because the “homeland was never attacked.”
Who Wins with Talk?
One really can’t blame the Chinese. They are just doing what works.
You see, they figured out a long time ago (as did many other countries) that if you really want to perplex Americans….just don’t talk to them.
The Yankees will squirm and wonder what they did to get you mad at them.
And then they start making concessions and giving away things to get back on speaking terms.
Panic Mode at the White House
It does indeed appear that the Biden Administration went into panic mode to restart communications after Beijing gave it the cold shoulder last summer after Nancy Pelosi‘s visit to Taiwan.
There seems to be a sense on the US side that if we aren’t talking we are sure to be fighting. An anthropologist might suggest this is also an American conceit that any problem can be resolved via dialogue.
So the Chinese are glad to let the Americans yap and to meet and talk about whatever (other than COVID and Fentanyl) and they might even get some “presents” to boot.
Washington thinks it’s progress, or at least not failing. But Beijing sees an ever-hopeful enemy that is always willing for one more round of talks.
Meanwhile, China improves its position and gets ready for the day kinetic action comes, assuming that’s even necessary.
At most this latest Xi Jinping-Joe Biden talk in Bali is a tactical pause ー to lull the Americans into thinking some deal might be cut. And to get the Americans to ease up on the PRC.
The Chinese communists are not hard to figure out, if you pay attention. But neither are the Americans.
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