Whistling Past the Graveyard: Clinton Point-Man on ‘Y2K’ in Low-Balling Magnitude of the Impending Crisis
(Washington, D.C.): Today’s Washington Post features an article about a few of
the problems
besetting the U.S. government as it grapples, belatedly, with the Year 2000 (or Y2K) “bug.” In a
perfect (if unintended) metaphor for the trouble on this front now confronting the Clinton
Administration — and, thanks in no small measure to its absence of “leadership” on the issue, the
Nation — the Post headline reads “Y2K Problem Poses Staffing Challenges for
Agencies.” Yet,
the caption on an accompanying photograph quotes John Koskinen, the President’s “czar” for the
Millennium bug, as saying: “Y2K staffing ‘has not turned out to be a major issue at this point, but
we are continuing to monitor it.'”
Shorthanded
Unfortunately, the article proceeds to detail myriad examples that suggest ways in which
personnel problems are seriously interfering with the government’s Y2K remediation
program.
For example, the Post reports:
- “In the scramble to fix computers for the Year 2000, federal agencies have regularly
complained that their technology experts were being lured away by better-paying jobs and that
qualified contractors were difficult to find.” - “Of the 24 large agencies required to file quarterly or monthly Y2K progress reports, 13
expressed worries about their computer staffing or staff availability, according to a new
General Accounting Office report.” - “[According to the GAO] four agencies – the departments of Agriculture, Justice and State
and the Patent and Trademark Office – [are] facing [acute] Year 2000 staff woes: project
delays because of high turnover among contractor staff and losses of skilled information
technology employees through retirements and increased recruitment by private-sector
companies.”
A ‘Major Issue’, Indeed
Mr. Koskinen’s reassurances notwithstanding, the anecdotal evidence of problems of ensuring
compliance of the federal agencies is of great concern for several reasons:
- The government has historically had a much more difficult time than the private sector hiring
and retaining qualified workers in a competitive job market. More often than not, the
workers
the government does retain have skill sets deemed unimpressive (read, unemployable)
by
the private sector. - Given the complexity of undertaking a comprehensive assessment of the extent of the
Y2K-associated staffing problems, anecdotal evidence is all there is to go on in calibrating
the
magnitude of such problems. - It is a well known fact that over 80% of all large high technology projects are
completed behind schedule. That the Clinton/Gore Administration
continues to assert
that the job — arguably, the largest high technology project ever undertaken with an
altogether inflexible deadline — will be done on-time defies historical experience, to
say
nothing of common sense.
Panic Prevention?
The truth of the matter is that, even if the federal government were experiencing
no personnel
problems in preparing for the Y2K “bug,” the Clinton Administration would still be dangerously
“behind the power curve.” After all, far and away the toughest part of insuring federal agency
compliance with Y2K requirements will be the testing, re-remediation and retesting phases —
work that has scarcely even begun in most agencies.
In fact, what seems to be going on here is less crisis management than
panic management.
Unfortunately, Czar Koskinen’s wishful thinking about the staffing problem is not an isolated
incident. In public speeches, media interviews and through other vehicles, he has consistently
understated the magnitude of the problem while substantially overstating the government’s
preparedness for dealing with it.(1)
Koskinen has plenty of company in the Clinton Administration, however. Indeed, even on the
one
occasion last July, when (after months of refusing to issue public warnings about the Y2K crisis)
President Clinton and Vice President Gore finally used the “bully pulpit” to raise an alarm about
this impending danger, they failed accurately to describe the severity of the problem. They also
refused to take any responsibility for the significant contribution their lack of leadership to date
has made to the Nation’s Y2K unpreparedness — and, therefore, to the likely intensity of the
coming crisis.(2)
The Bottom Line
An insert next to the aforementioned Washington Post article on Y2K staffing
issues reports the
Federal Reserve plans to release some $30-50 billion in additional reserves late in 1999. The
reason: to ensure banks will have sufficient money on hand to satisfy depositors who want to hold
their savings in cash on the 1st of January 2000. As of April of this year, there was
$3.6 trillion on
deposit in U.S. banks. Those banks hold only some $49 billion in cash reserves. Thus, even with
the additional funds available for withdrawal, banks will have at most only $2.70 for every $100
on deposit.
The Clinton-Gore Administration is sorely mistaken if it believes a potentially cataclysmic
socio-economic crisis will be avoided if it persists in misleading the American people. The only
hope of
preventing such a panic-driven outcome is for the administration to provide steady, honest
leadership — addressing candidly the unknown and greatly increasing the priority given by both
the private and public sector to accelerating Y2K remediation and damage limitation efforts.
– 30 –
1. See the Center’s Decision Brief entitled
At Last, Clinton-Gore Publicly Address Year 2000
Bug — But Continue to Lowball Problem, Duck Responsibility For It (
1998) and the Casey Institute’s Perspective entitled New Theory
For Clinton-Gore Silence on
Y2K Emerges As N.P.R., Gingrich Offer Contrasting Views Of The Danger (
June 1998).
2. See the Center’s Decision Brief entitled
At Last, Clinton-Gore Publicly Address Year 2000
Bug — But Continue to Lowball Problem, Duck Responsibility For It (
1998).
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