Will Ecuador’s elections remove the left-wing government from power?

On February 19^th Ecuador will be having its presidential elections. The leading candidates are Lenin Moreno (former Vice-President) and Guillermo Lasso (a conservative banker). If Lasso or someone from the opposition wins it would bring to an end the over 10 year rule of the left-wing regime of Rafael Correa. However, if Moreno (Correa’s hand-picked successor) wins then his policies are bound to continue.

This would include Correa’s foreign policy, which seeks cooperation with Iran and China. Some of Ecuadorian and Iranian cooperation under Correa included laundering money for Tehran thus helping it skirt international sanctions. Since it is laundered money there is no information on what Iran is spending it on.

Moreno will probably continue Correa’s cooperation with Iran. Tehran might start sending “workers,” i.e. terrorists, into the country in the same way it did in Venezuela. This could turn Ecuador into another outpost for Islamic terrorism.

Correa has also turned China into a big market for Ecuadorian oil. Thanks to him China has the rights to 90 percent of Ecuador’s oil, profits from which go to repay the loans Correa took out from Beijing. This dependence on Beijing’s loans makes Ecuador a Chinese vassal state. Under Moreno Chinese firms will likely continue to buy up Ecuador’s petroleum reserves, which will allow Beijing to keep Ecuador dependent on its loans thus maintaining the regimes foothold in Latin America.

Despite Moreno leading in opinion polls, the opposition hopes that looming oil crisis and an ongoing corruption scandal could hurt him come Election Day. If he does not receive the required 40 percent of the popular vote then there would be a runoff election with the second most popular candidate. This could allow the fractured opposition to unite behind him and defeat Moreno.

However, the past decade has shown that left-wing populist governments are willing to subvert democracy to stay power. In Nicaragua Daniel Ortega placed his supporters in Electoral College and the Supreme Court in order to win a third term. While in Venezuela Maduro managed to win a slim majority in an election whose results were dubious.

All three branches of Ecuador’s government are staffed with Correa loyalists. The free press and media have also been censored by the regime. Given Correa’s authoritarian tendencies it is very likely that he could help swing elections towards Moreno.

So given the previous experience with Venezuela and Nicaragua Moreno will likely win the elections. Thus allowing Iran and China to increase their influence on the continent.