Will US help Philippines stand up to neighborhood bully?

Taiwan, Ukraine and Gaza get most of the attention these days. But the United States’ reputation as a reliable ally is nowhere more at stake than in the Philippines.

And that reputation is on the verge of going down the drain.

June 17 saw the most recent and most violent effort by the China Coast Guard (CCG) to prevent Philippine resupply of BNP Sierra Madre, an old navy ship deliberately grounded on Second Thomas Shoal and manned by a detachment of sailors and marines in order to assert Philippine control of the shoal.

This shouldn’t be necessary since Second Thomas Shoal is well within the Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

However, China claims ownership and has been interfering with Philippine Coast Guard and Navy resupply efforts with increasing force.

This time, brandishing knives, axes and spears, flashing lasers and using sound weapons, and ramming and towing outnumbered Philippine boats, the Chinese seriously injured a Philippine sailor and damaged and seized Philippine boats and stole property.

Accounts differ as to whether one Philippine boat slipped through.

Regardless, this was the most violent Chinese effort to date.

Will clashes between China Coast Guard and Philippine forces intensify?

Yes. The Chinese have been clear about what they intend to do with Philippine maritime territory that they covet: dominate, control and, if necessary, seize and occupy – and make it impossible for their smaller, outmatched victims to retake it.

This is the pattern they’ve used throughout the South China Sea. And they are willing to use force to get their way.

These clashes will continue until the Philippines backs off (surrenders) or the United States steps in – and lives up to its commitments to its Philippine allies.

Also, note it’s not just China’s Coast Guard that’s active in Philippine territory. The People’s Armed Forces Maritime Militia is also operating in conjunction with CCG as is the ‘regular’ Chinese fishing fleet. And the PLAN (Chinese Navy) is always nearby.

Nobody likes to admit it, but the PRC used its “numbers” advantage and man-made island bases to establish de facto control of the South China Sea at least seven or eight years ago. Its grip continues to tighten.

What’s next?

This is coming to a head. The Philippines is not in a position to withstand the much larger Chinese force that is deployed at Second Thomas Shoal – and that can be increased at will.

Unless Manila agrees to a humiliating deal with the PRC to give up ultimate control of Second Thomas Shoal in exchange for Chinese permission to resupply the Philippine’s grounded ship, the Philippines will eventually have to evacuate the detachment aboard BNP Sierra Madre.

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