Worried About Terrorist Drones? Then Worry About the Iran Deal.

Analysts are rightly pointing out that the deal between the United States and Iran on the latter’s nuclear program frees up more money, in the form of sanctions relief, for Iran to continue at an accelerated pace its sponsorship of terrorist organizations and their attacks throughout the world.  Incredibly, Members of President Obama’s own team – including National Security Advisor Susan Rice and Gen. Paul Selva, Obama’s nominee to be Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff – have stated as much.

But what might that continued terrorism sponsorship look like on the ground, with more money coming in for that purpose?

There is a high probability that a cash-infused Iran will mean not only more terrorist attacks against our friends and our troops, but more terrorist attacks with better, more sophisticated hardware.  One item to be especially concerned about in this regard: the proliferation of Iranian drones.

Iran’s chief proxy Hezbollah has already made use of Iranian made drones since 2006 in Lebanon, and experts worry that their capabilities will only get more advanced over time.  Homeland Security Today’s Joe Charlaff reported earlier this year, citing interviews with Edan Landau of the Institute for Counter Terrorism in Herzliya, Israel, and Tal Inbar of the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies, also in Herzliya:

“…Inbar added, though, that in recent years, Hezbollah upgraded its fleet of UAVs and now has possession of the Shahed 129 UAV, an Iranian unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) which is in the same class of America’s Predator in terms of size. It’s also believed it may be able to be equipped with guided air-to-ground missiles. It’s also rumored to have been reverse engineered from a downed US drone…”

“’…Basically, anything in Syria or Iran’s arsenal is always available to Hezbollah.  During the last few years, the organization has gained valuable experience in using these drones,’ Landau added….”

“’The basic assumption should be that every type of UAV that is seen in Iran will probably be seen in Lebanon in the near future, and possibly in the hands of Islamic Jihad in the south’ Inbar said…”

To be sure, Iranian drones and those of its proxies still do not have nearly the same level of sophistication and capabilities of American or Israeli unmanned systems.  But when you’re Hezbollah, your weapons only need to be sophisticated enough to be that much more brutal and indiscriminate.  While the precision associated with U.S. and Israeli drones has been honed for the purpose of carefully selecting targets in ways that minimizes civilian casualties and the military footprint in general, Iran’s proxies are looking to drones to give them the precision needed to inflict more casualties, not less – whether in the form of providing the kind of intelligence-surveillance-reconnaissance that can better guide rockets fired from southern Lebanon or Gaza, or perhaps sooner rather than later, carrying munitions that can more accurately target civilian population centers or critical infrastructure.

And that’s all just within the realm of what Iran could produce on its own by way of drones.

Importantly, though, this deal doesn’t just involve freeing up money that Iran could use to develop and deploy its own weapons.  The deal also entails lifting the conventional arms embargo on Iran in another five years, and that means a clearer pathway for Chinese drones making their way to the mullahs.  China’s drones – which are much further along technologically than Iran’s – have gotten the attention of the U.S. Department of Defense, which in its 2014 Annual Report to Congress on Military and Security Developments the People’s Republic of China, stated:

“China is incrementally advancing its development and employment of UAVs.  According to a 2013 report by the Defense Science Board, China’s move into unmanned systems is “alarming” and combines unlimited resources with technological awareness that might allow China to match or even outpace U.S. spending on unmanned systems in the future. During September 2013, a probable Chinese UAV was noted for the first time conducting reconnaissance over the East China Sea. This past year, China unveiled details of four UAVs under development, three of which are designed to carry weapons: the Xianglong (Soaring Dragon); Yilong (Pterodactyl); Sky Saber; and Lijian, China’s first stealthy flying wing UAV, for which China announced its first maiden flight on November 21, 2013.”

China, along was Russia, was pushing hard for an end to the arms embargo on Iran as part of this nuclear deal.

If you’re worried about drones in the wrong hands, you should be worried about the Iran deal.