Mullah Mansour Named as New Taliban Emir

On July 29, the Afghan government announced that the leader of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, died two years ago. He has been declared dead a number of times over the years and has not appeared publicly since 2001; however, Taliban forces generally agreed that he was alive. The Taliban has since acknowledged his death, though it has not officially said when or where Mullah Omar died. It also named his successor: Mullah Akhtar Mansour.

Mullah Mansour has long been considered as the acting head of the Taliban and was a member of Mullah Omar’s inner circle. He was born in the 1960s in Afghanistan’s Kandahar province, where he served as a shadow governor after the Taliban was removed from power in 2001. (Mullah Omar also came from Kandahar.) When the Taliban was in power from 1996 until 2001, he served as the civil aviation minister, and the UN said that he also played a role in drug trafficking. His ancestry lies in the Durrani line of the Pashtun tribe, and like Mullah Omar, he studied at the Darul Uloom Haqqania madrassa outside of Peshawar, Pakistan. He is believed to have had an important role in starting the peace talks that have been going on between the Taliban and the Afghan government.

Mullah Mansour’s elevation to the official head of the Taliban will likely be disputed by other top commanders who may not endorse peace talks with the Afghan government. This could lead to splits within the group, which is comprised of different networks of fighters all operating under the Taliban umbrella organization and brand.

Two important questions must be considered in light of the ascension of Mullah Mansour as the leader of the Taliban: will he be able to stand up to the Islamic State’s proclaimed Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi? and will Al Qaeda swear allegiance to him?

Both questions leave room for speculation but can only be truly answered with time.

In regards to the first question, the Islamic State’s legitimacy comes from its declaration of the Caliphate with Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as its Caliph. As the Caliphate, the Islamic State claims a position as the supreme and ultimate Islamic authority. However, the Taliban has hinted at competing for the title of the Caliphate; Mullah Omar was called the Emir of the Faithful for many years. The title of Emir of the Faithful is often used as a synonym for the Caliph, although Omar never openly claimed the title.

The title of Emir of the Faithful has now reportedly been passed on to Mullah Mansour, but in-fighting amongst Taliban factions may lead to those who do not accept Mullah Mansour to turn to al-Baghdadi instead. A number of Taliban commanders had already defected to the Islamic State because Taliban leadership had been unable to prove that Mullah Omar was alive, and this may encourage more to do the same.

Importantly, the Islamic State says that the Caliph must be a Quraysh, the tribe of Islam’s Prophet Mohammed. Al-Baghdadi claims to be a Quraysh, while Mullah Mansour is open about his Pashtun heritage. For members of the Taliban who are currently on the fence about where their loyalty lies, al-Baghdadi’s claim (which is almost certainly false) to Mohammed’s tribe could be the deciding factor in switching allegiance to the Islamic State.

As for the second question, Al Qaeda always recognized Mullah Omar as the Emir of the Faithful. The organization renewed its pledge of allegiance to the Taliban as recently as last year, choosing to follow Mullah Omar rather than al-Baghdadi. Mullah Omar famously provided shelter to Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda’s leadership while they planned the 9/11 attacks, and many Al Qaeda operatives fought alongside the Taliban in Afghanistan. Al Qaeda may have felt more loyalty to Mullah Omar as a leader than to the Taliban as a group, and the world must wait and see if they now choose to support Mullah Mansour.

It is important to understand that the Taliban is likely to undergo significant changes with the emergence of Mullah Mansour as its new leader. One of the few things holding the Taliban’s various factions together was their allegiance to Mullah Omar. His death could lead to an emergence of new, smaller offshoots or to the spread of the Islamic State into Afghanistan.  The Afghan government is already having difficulty controlling Taliban violence because the US is withdrawing its troops and US combat power is diminishing. It will be hard pressed to hold on against either an uptick in Taliban violence or an emboldened Islamic State entry into the region.