Death of Al Shabaab Intel Chief Will Mean Nothing If AU Forces Remain Complacent

Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) reported their airstrike targeting Al Shabaab’s Nadaris camp killed Mahad Mohammed Karatey, the head of Al Shabaab’s intelligence wing, Amniyat. Along with Karatey, 10 mid-level officers and 42 Amniyat recruits were reportedly killed in the strike.

Karatey was presiding over the graduation of 80 Amniyat recruits, and Al Shabaab has since denied the claim that Karatey was killed in the strike.

Karatey was reportedly a major part of planning the Garissa University attack, the attack on the Ugandan African Union (AU) base in September 2015, and the most recent attack on the Kenyan AU base in El-Adde.

The death of Karatey is said to be a major blow to Al Shabaab, yet prominent leaders have been killed in the past and Al Shabaab remains just as lethal.

Amniyat is the most important, and effective branch of Al Shabaab which specializes in intelligence collection, assassinations, and the planning and staging of suicide missions in Somalia and its neighboring countries. Amniyat also acted as the personal guard of late Al Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane.

Al Shabaab’s high-ranking Amniyat officials have been targeted in the past. In December 2014, a U.S. drone strike killed Amniyat chief Tahlil Abdishakur. The following March, another U.S. drone strike killed Amniyat senior official Adan Garaar.

Al Shabaab’s leadership is closely allied with Al Qaeda (AQ), as many of its leaders fought with AQ in Afghanistan. However, the recent defections to Islamic State (IS) illustrate a disconnect between the younger and older generation within Al Shabaab. Al Shabaab’s leadership has been actively hunting those who defected, and future infighting may be in store for organization.

Al Shabaab may not only be losing recruits at home, but also abroad. The group has historically received many recruits from America every year, especially from Minnesota where there is a large Somali-American community. However, Minnesota is now seeing an increase in IS recruits.

The Free Fire Blog reported on how Al Shabaab’s decentralized structure plays a role in minimizing the effect of targeted killings. Additionally, while targeted killing of Al-Shabaab leadership provides a tactical advantage, its not clear that the African Union forces and Somali government forces are able to take advantage. The recent expulsion of Al Shabaab forces from Marka with relative ease illustrate the potential effectiveness of AU forces, yet they have been unable to sustain liberated territory.

While AU and Somali forces are currently dealing with Al Shabaab, they may have to look out for a greater influence of IS in Somalia in the near future. While at the moment the group does not pose any major threat, they are likely to grow. This will leave a struggling AU and Somali force to deal with two terrorist organizations, and this will ruin any chance for peace.