AU and U.S. Forces Inflict Heavy Losses on Al Shabaab

A U.S. drone strike targeting a terrorist training camp killed 150 members of the Somali terrorist organization Al-Shabaab. The Pentagon reports that the fighters were preparing for a major attack on U.S. and African Union (AU) forces in the country.

The attack is the deadliest on Al Shabaab forces in the decade-long campaign. The attack also follows a successful airstrike by Kenyan Defense Forces (KDF) on a graduation ceremony for Al-Shabaab’s intelligence wing, Amniyat. That strikes killed 42 jihadists including the head of Amniyat, Mahad Mohammed Karatey.

The common theme between these two attacks is they targeted graduations and training facilities which may represent a new approach of AU and U.S. forces to combatting Al Shabaab. Targeted killings have been used in the past, but the casualty rate is usually low, while these strikes were timed to target a large number of fighters, killing close to two-hundred Al Shabaab fighters in the two strikes.

Limited targeted killings in the past have shown minimal impact on Al Shabaab. The group has been quick to regroup and retaliate with attacks on soft targets. By attacking training facilities, the U.S. and AU forces may be trying to hamper Al Shabaab’s ability to fight instead of just eliminating operational leadership.

With Al Shabaab currently dealing with internal divisions due to defections to the Islamic State (IS), it may be the perfect time to widen attacks on the group. Al Shabaab has been able to make up the majority of the territory it lost in 2011, and they’ve maintained the ability to inflict heavy losses on AU and Somali forces. If the forces fighting against Al Shabaab want to severely weaken the group, they should build on this most recent strike before Al Shabaab adapts.

It is possible the U.S. will increase their activity in Somalia over the next several months. The Obama Administration has been increasing U.S. military presence and activity in Africa in order to combat terrorist organizations. The U.S. just recently provided training to Senegalese Special Forces and is considering sending intelligence drones and military advisors to Nigeria. There are also reports that the U.S. has sent forces inside Libya to gain intelligence on friendly and hostile groups in the country.

While the U.S. drone strike likely stalled the next attack, AU and U.S. forces should expect Al Shabaab to plan to continue to pursue their efforts to reestablish their territory in Somalia, including targeting U.S. and AU forces where necessary to accomplish it.