Adherence to Alleged Yemeni Cease-Fire Non-Existent

On May 31st, Saudi Arabia intercepted a ballistic missile that was fired from an undisclosed location in Yemen. According to Reuters, the act of aggression, likely from the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, will not be retaliated against.

Saudi officials declined to indicate what kind of ballistic missile had been fired at them, as well as what the missile was targeting. Yet, it is the second ballistic missile to be fired from the war-torn country and aimed at Saudi Arabia in the past month.

In April, the Saudi-coalition, the Hadi forces, and the Houthi insurgents agreed to cease-fire discussions that are taking place in Kuwait.

Most recently, forces supporting the ousted Hadi government in Yemen lost ground to Shia Houthi militias on June 2nd. The pro-government forces stated that they retreated the provinces of Marib and Shabwa due to lack of air support from the Saudi-coalition. Meanwhile, the Saudi-coalition conducted several airstrikes on the Houthi-controlled capital of Sana’a that same day, leading to the deaths of five Houthi soldiers.

Despite accusations and claims, it appears that no side is particularly willing to end the fighting.

A day after the most recent cease-fire violations, the United Nations officially blacklisted all sides of the war, which freezes certain financial assets and limits travel. The blacklisting comes as violations of human rights, specifically the killing of children, have caused the conflict to garner more and more attention.

Making the situation more complex is the addition of a fourth military actor, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), an al-Qaeda exclave that in the wake of the civil war began to take control of southern Yemen through a massive land-grab.  AQAP initially succeeded in their Yemeni campaign but has since been pushed back from major cities, such as the southern port of Aden and the city of Mukallah.

Currently, the al-Qaeda group is reported have access to large gas fields where other prominent players in the civil war are tapping into the dwindling supply of energy. This access has allowed them to continue their jihadist campaign, ultimately an effort to fill the power vacuum in the broken state.

Counter-insurgency forces, mostly those coming from the Saudi-coalition, appear to be making minimal progress in their attempts to remove AQAP from power; however, the terrorist group is still a major player and a major concern for those in the region, as well as the larger international body, most notably the United States.

Yemen, the poorest country in the Arabian Peninsula, presents the United States with a particularly interesting dilemma because of its strategic location. Though known to US officials as a hub for terrorist activity, Yemen’s importance as a state derives from is control of access to the Red Sea. Both the Bab al Mandab Strait and the Gulf of Aden permit the flow of large amounts of the world’s oil exports on a daily basis. Many states near Yemen, such as Saudi Arabia, fear that these strategic waypoints will be compromised if Houthi rebels acquire southern areas of the state with Iranian support.

Others in the area fear the larger threat stemming from AQAP control of cities and provinces in Yemen, which could allow al-Qaeda to significantly increase their organization’s finances, political legitimacy, and ability to recruit.

While success for Iranian proxies or Al Qaeda groups in Yemen are problematic to American security, the Saudi-backed Hadi government presents itself as a less than ideal solution as well. Prior to the civil war, the Hadi government maintained a political alliance with the Yemeni Muslim Brotherhood’s Al-Islah party, known for their affiliation with al-Qaeda, among other terror groups. Further complicating Hadi’s affiliation is the public backing he received from Hamas after he was removed from power.

To date, the U.S. has largely taken a hands-off approach to the conflict in Yemen and, at times, has offered intelligence and implicit support for the Saudi effort.

With the façade of peace-fire negotiations becoming more apparent, the conflict in Yemen can only be expected to persist.