Iranian Protesters Call for Regime Change

In Tehran, protests broke out on Monday when sellers decided to close their shops and march in the streets against the Iranian regime. Merchants in the Grand Bazaar in Iran’s capital were exasperated by the plummeting value of the Iranian rial, which sank to 90,000 per U.S. dollar on Monday. Reports say that hundreds of marchers were in the Grand Bazaar, while hundreds more protested outside the parliament.

Monday afternoon, Iranian police fired tear gas canisters at the crowd near the parliament and an unspecified number of protesters were arrested. Some shops were reopened Tuesday and Wednesday, but protests are still ongoing, even growing in size.

International reports attributed these protests to the Trump administration’s decision in May to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and re-impose economic sanctions on the Iranian regime. However, local reporters and activists on social media posted videos of protesters chanting “Death to Palestine” and other chants lamenting Iran’s funding of overseas Islamist terror groups, like Hamas and Hezbollah. There were even calls for the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani.

The protests Monday seem to be a continuation of the protests from last December and January, when tens of thousands in 75 cities protested with similar complaints. Those protests resulted in the death of 25 protesters and over 5,000 arrests. Then, as now, protests were directed at corruption in Iran’s government stipulating from the lack of economic development promised by the JCPOA.

In response to the protests, Khamenei called on the judiciary to punish protesters because they are “disrupting economic security.” The top Justice in Iran complied, threatening merchants with execution or up to 20 years in prison if the protests continued. Rouhani accused foreign entities of organizing the protest and using propaganda to suggest the rial is being devalued. To ensure protesters aren’t given light punishments, 167 judges have been fired while another 450 were warned.

The Grand Bazaar protest is particularly significant. Shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar are considered to be more conservative and traditionally supportive of the Islamic regime. Their involvement in the protests indicates wider dissent instead of being concentrated in rural or suburban areas in other parts of Iran, as was the case in protests 6 months ago.

Some reports have suggested that hard-liners against the Iranian government are using force to compel shopkeepers to close their shops by threatening assault or destruction. But some shops have remained open throughout the protest. Due to the high costs of protesting in Iran, protests tend to occur during periods of desperation or extreme dissatisfaction. It is unlikely anti-government groups could force unwitting shopkeepers to demonstrate, especially when the government uses brutal suppression techniques.

According to BBC Correspondent, Ali Hashem, Rouhani plans to reshuffle his cabinet after requests from more than half of parliament members. Since most of Iran’s affairs are controlled by the Supreme Leader, Rouhani’s move will have limited impact, though it may appease some protesters. When Rouhani was elected, he was seen by hopeful international observers as a reformist, though Khamenei never relinquished control of Iran’s economic or political institutions, so significant reforms never occurred.

It is likely that, as with previous protests against this regime, this week’s protests won’t result in significant changes. Even if Rouhani conducts some cabinet changes, it will have little impact on Iran’s true leadership. Khamenei sets Iran’s official policy and can replace Rouhani if a need arises.

Most of Iran’s leadership is aging, including Khamenei who is 78. The generational divide is a significant part of these protests. Young Iranians are at the forefront of protests against the Iranian regime, mostly demanding more political freedom and economic development. Small, scattered protests against the hijab led to the government restricting protests to certain zones at certain times.

Because of regularly occurring protests, it is possible Rouhani is replaced as Iran’s president. There is some speculation that Khamenei will replace Rouhani with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. The IRGC is a paramilitary organization loyal to Khamenei that protects the Islamic Republic against threats domestic and abroad. It uses its Quds Force to support terror groups in other parts of the Middle East.

If Soleimani replaces Rouhani, Iran’s current policies will continue and there may be an increase in subversive tactics abroad, with a particular focus on attacking Israel. Several videos have been posted to social media depicting IRGC forces using force to suppress protesters. If Soleimani becomes president of Iran, this level of suppression will continue and the IRGC will continue to receive funding to carry out attacks abroad.

Even if Soleimani is not chosen to replace Rouhani, no real changes will come from these protests. Ayatollah Khamenei has too much control over Iranian affairs, and improvements won’t be made until his regime is gone as well. Once U.S. economic sanctions go into effect, the Iranian government will be further crippled and may be forced to choose between funding IRGC missions abroad and trying to appease protesters domestically.

The Trump administration has asked allies to cut Iranian oil imports to zero or risk further sanctions. This was probably done because Russia, China and India vowed to continue working with Iran, despite sanctions. If those countries withdraw their investments from Iran, U.S. sanctions will further cripple the Iranian economy, potentially prompting more impactful change in Iranian leadership.

Since Khamenei is already using the U.S. as justification for cracking down on protesters, the U.S. must take care not to prove his claims. The U.S. should follow through on its plans to sanction Iran and meet with foreign leaders to encourage them to cut business ties with the Iranian regime, upping the pressure on the Iranian economy. At the same time U.S. officials publicly condemning the regime is a smart way to provide moral support for protesters. These actions allow the U.S. to support Iranian protesters without undermining their position as a legitimate domestic protest movement. Though the latest protest may not result in significant changes in Iranian affairs, Iranian citizens’ anger at their government is growing. For now, patience and continuing to apply appropriate sanctions pressure is the most effective way to achieve regime change in Iran.