GUERNICA, 1937; GORAZDE, 1994

(Washington, D.C.): Today —
forty-seven years after the Nazi
German-backed destruction of the city of
Guernica by Spanish fascist forces — the
Western world is once again facing the
genocidal impulses of petty tyrants
backed by a great power.

In 1937, the “civilized”
nations of Europe and North America
largely ignored this portentous
development, allowing thousands of
non-combatants to be massacred along with
their defenders by heavy weaponry
disproportionately at the disposal of the
attackers. In 1994, the international
community cannot muster the will to
resist or punish bloodthirsty Serb forces
inflicting a similar fate on the Bosnian
town of Gorazde. As a result, many of its
refugee-swollen population of 65,000 are
at risk of extermination.

As the Center for Security Policy
observed in August 1991⁽¹⁾
— when Serbian and Serb-dominated
Federal Yugoslav forces began rampaging
through Slovenia and Croatia — the
unchecked aggression in Spain proved a
dress rehearsal for a conflict that was
to ravage the continent of Europe a few
years later. It seems ever more clear
that the present, unchecked “ethnic
cleansing” in Bosnia-Hercegovina
will inspire turmoil and violence beyond
the boundaries of the former Yugoslavia
as well.

‘Moscow Rules’

This prospect is only increased by the
insidious role Russia is playing in
materially aiding the Serbs and their
Bosnian proxies. If Moscow is a
less obvious accomplice to the genocide
than the Nazis were in the Spanish civil
war, it is no less directly contributing
to this execrable phenomenon in Bosnia
by: unilaterally emplacing
“peacekeeping” troops in the
line of fire to protect Serbian
positions; denouncing NATO air strikes
conducted to shield U.N. monitors from
Serb attacks in Gorazde; urging the
lifting of international economic
sanctions against Belgrade prior to
the achievement of a durable cease-fire,
to say nothing of an equitable peace; and
promoting the idea that the Serbs can be
reliable negotiating partners.

The latter point was spelled out
bitterly today by Lieutenant General Sir
Michael Rose, the U.N. commander in
Sarajevo. According to CNN, Gen. Rose
denounced the aggressors’ cynical
manipulation of repeated cease-fires and
other negotiations, saying: “Bosnian
Serbs have used the peace process to
cover their warmongering policies.”

Long the masters when it comes to
cynically manipulating international
negotiations, the Russians appear intent
on not being outdone by their Serbian
clients. In recent days, Foreign Minister
Andrei Kozyrev has tried to euchre
concessions from the United States with
respect to a “special status”
in the Partnership for Peace — including
a veto over Western actions such as
U.N.-mandated air strikes — as a price
for continued “cooperation” on
Bosnia.

The Latest Russian Gambit

Within the past 24 hours, moreover,
the Russians have adopted a classic
“good cop-bad cop” strategy.
Deputy Foreign Minister and special envoy
for Bosnia Vitaly Churkin has denounced
the perpetrators of the Gorazde attacks,
calling them “a group of Bosnian
Serb extremists.” ⁽²⁾
Upon returning to Moscow after producing
a cease-fire for Gorazde that was broken
by Serb forces literally before the
ink was dry, Churkin theatrically
pronounced, “Can we afford [to]
allow…this group to use the policy of
Great Russia to cover their activities
and drag other Serbs into this madness? I
give a categorical answer — Never!”
Before the world’s television cameras, he
has called for Russia to break off the
negotiations.

It falls at the moment to Churkin’s
boss, Foreign Minister Kozyrev, to play
the “bad cop.” Kozyrev — who
is actively currying favor with the
ascendant hardline factions in Moscow —
continues to insist that negotiations
must proceed, with Russia henceforth
playing the pivotal role of broker. Yet,
the Kremlin’s continuing pandering to the
Serbs is evident in statement attributed
to Kozyrev by the Associated Press today:
“Russia remains the only strong
player on this scene which has not
stained itself with irresponsible
actions.”

‘It’s the
Anything-but-Foreign-Policy, Stupid’

President Clinton continues to cling
to the mirage of negotiations as his
excuse for inaction. He claims endlessly
— if without much conviction — that
“real progress” was being made
at the negotiating table. He contends
that more progress will be made if only
some elusive “momentum” can be
regained.

But Mr. Clinton’s insouciance about
the toll that is being taken while he
waits for the Serbs to permit
“progress” and
“momentum” is evident in a
statement he made today — a statement
redolent with indifference to the fate of
the victims of Gorazde, and the
thousands of Gorazdes before it:
“It has not been a great weekend for
the peace efforts in Bosnia.”

The Bottom Line

The Center for Security Policy
believes that, if the sort of whirlwind
of carnage, devastation and dislocation
reaped by Western apathy and inaction in
Guernica is to be avoided in the Europe
of 1994, the United States must use its
air power at once to change the Serbs’
calculations of the correlation of
forces. In the absence of such a change,
negotiations with Serbia and her Bosnian
proxies are doomed to continue to fail.

It is absurd to claim that the sort
of air attacks so clearly needed are
precluded by the advanced position of
Serb forces moving in on Gorazde. Such
air strikes can — and should — be
directed at strategic targets in
Serbia proper and Serb-controlled
Bosnia.

In combination with the immediate —
and, if necessary, unilateral —
lifting of the arms embargo against
Bosnia, these strikes stand a
chance of doing what endless talk and
economic sanctions have utterly failed to
do: dissuade Belgrade from continuing is
genocidal aggression. A campaign
with this purpose should be authorized at
once by the Clinton Administration and
then turned over to the U.S. military to
execute with such of its NATO
counterparts as are willing to
participate. And those in the Clinton
Administration who have allowed the
present crisis to deteriorate to its
current pass should get out of the way
before this conflict reignites a wider
war on the European continent, the sort
of tragedy not seen there since the last
embers of the fire started in the Spanish
civil war were resolutely extinguished.

– 30 –

1. See the
Center’s Decision Brief
entitled, For Whom the Bell
Tolls: The Serbian Dress Rehearsal for
the Coming Crisis In Europe
(No. 91-D
77, 13 August 1991).

2. In his previous
capacity as one of the Soviet Union’s
most skillful apologists, Churkin is
eminently familiar with the
tried-and-true Kremlin strategy when
caught red-handed at activities the West
abhors: blame it on uncontrolled
“rogue” elements in Russia’s
military, intelligence services or other
organizations.