Iran Nuclear Negotiations Miss Deadline, Is There a Plan B?

As expected, the Iran nuclear negotiations June 30^th deadline came and went without any agreement being reached. With a new “deadline” of July 9^th set, questions have been raised of what will happen if a deal is once again not reached. As the Obama Administration has repeatedly offered inducements in an effort to reach a deal and keep negotiations open, but Iran has yet to budge on any of its terms and redlines, and has already been caught repeatedly failing to uphold its agreement under the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA).

President Obama recently said at a press conference if the Iranians cannot abide by the guidelines set by the US, he is willing to walk away from the deal.  But evidence suggests that the State Department has so far actively attempted to deny Iranian violations where they occur. A United Nations report has said that countries, including the U.S., have withheld evidence which would have shown nuclear violations.

And as negotiations go forward, Iran continues to profit from sanctions relief, including regaining access to over $2 billion in overseas oil revenues, and resuming trade of petrochemicals and gold. The relief has been valued at $7 billion by the US government.

Given the Administration’s unwillingness to even admit Iranian violations, it seems questionable that the U.S. would walk indeed away from the table, as President Obama asserts.

Assuming however that the Obama Administration did abandon negotiations, is the military option still on the table? Is it feasible?

The largest challenge facing potential airstrikes, is the targeting of Iran’s Fordow facility, which plays host to 3,000 uranium enriching centrifuges.  To crack that nut, the U.S. is likely to rely on its B-2 stealth bomber and the Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP) bomb. Although not the largest US bomb ever made, if used the 30,000 pound bomb will be the largest conventional bomb ever used. The MOP is built to take down targets buried in deep terrain. According to the United States Air Force, the MOP can penetrate up 200 feet of terrain before exploding.

A B-2 can carry up to 2 MOP’s , both of which might be needed to achieve a successful destruction of Fordow. The facility, buried in Iranian mountains was discovered in 2009 and led the Pentagon to further develop its bunker buster program in order to detect, analyze and ultimately destroy underground sites.

The Iranians have used the time during negotiations to attempt to improve air defenses and other mechanisms against the threat of attack. Russia recently took the opportunity of sanctions relief to announce its intention to provide Tehran with the S-300 air-defense system. While the S-300 system would make airstrikes a challenge, it would still be a surmountable one, for both U.S. or Israeli air forces, according to U.S. and Israeli officials.

The US military capability exceeds what is necessary to degrade Iran’s nuclear program. But it is the political will that is lacking. It is inevitable Iran will take initiative to further its development of nuclear weapons, violating any agreements in order to do so. Given that cheating has already occurred with U.S. acquiescence, the President’s promise to “walk away” rings hollow.