Deciphering China’s Moves

As Chinese Premier Xi Jinping prepares for his state visit to Washington, Beijing is flexing its muscle across Asia: massive hardware on display at the WWII victory parade, declarations of power projection across the region, and announcement of building airfields on the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Combined, these actions point to an increased assertiveness as part of a long-term strategy by the Chinese Politburo.

Currently, construction is ongoing on two separate artificial islands China has expanded from the original rock formations; the Obama administration is currently restricting the Navy from sailing within 12 nautical miles (which is the internationally recognized maritime boundary of a sovereign state) of the artificial islands.

This behavior grants de facto recognition to China’s claims. By positioning artillery and expanding airfields, it is clear what Beijing’s objective is: force projection across the South China Sea. With over $ 5 trillion worth of trade passing through these waters every year, the stakes could not be higher.

At the heart of the dispute is China’s claim of economic and military sovereignty well beyond 200 miles off its coast. While the US and its allies in the region point to the UN convention of the Law of The Sea, which stipulates that military sovereignty extends only 12 miles offshore, China is able to note that the U.S. has not itself signed the LOS treaty.

It’s not immediately clear that Beijing is ready to risk a confrontation with Washington over rock outcroppings offshore knowing, as it does, that the other parties in the dispute have signed military cooperation pacts with the US. Beijing could make trade very difficult if it chose to close choke points such as the Philippines’ Strait or the Straits of Malacca if its demands aren’t met. The US Navy is publicly committed to keeping the sea-lanes open, and such an act would greatly raise the probability of conflict.

US allies such as The Philippines and Japan are watching anxiously as the much-heralded ‘pivot’ to Asia by the Obama administration fails to materialize. Perhaps China’s military moves on the eve of Jingping’s visit will get the Administration’s attention.