IS Continues to Take Advantage of Lack of Security Forces Around Baghdad

Last Friday, March 25, 2016, the Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for a suicide attack that killed at least 25 and wounded another 90 in Iraq. The bomber targeted civilians gathering to celebrate a local soccer team’s championship in the city of Iskandariya, which resides in the Babil province. A video taken showed the explosives being detonated as members of the team were accepting their trophies.

The attack in Iskandariya comes as Iraqi security forces prepare for their assault on Mosul. Last week the Free Fire Blog discussed the what the capturing Mosul would mean for IS and Iraqi forces, but it also focused on the length of time that will be needed to retake the city. Mosul is a stronghold for IS, and it will require a large force to reclaim. With Iraqi forces focused on Mosul, IS demonstrates Baghdad’s vulnerability in an attempt to disrupt the upcoming operation.

IS has launched several attacks on Baghdad and cities in the surrounding cities since the beginning of 2016 and the fall of Ramadi. Iskandariya lies just 30 miles away from the Iraqi capital, and this attack continues to illustrate how effective IS can be outside the areas it controls.

While IS has been able to launch multiple attacks outside their controlled territory, the Iraqi and U.S. forces have been able to capture and kill several top commanders in IS’s ranks.

In late February, U.S. Special Forces captured Sleiman Daoud al-Afari, the head of IS’s unit developing chemical weapons. Utilizing intelligence gained from Al-Afari, the U.S. was able to kill Omar al-Shishani, one of IS’s top military commanders, in an airstrike on March 4, 2016. Then on March 25, 2016, U.S. officials released a statement saying they had killed Abd al-Rahman Mustafa al-Qaduli in an airstrike. Defense Secretary Ash Carter described al-Qaduli as IS’s top financier.

Even with top commanders being pick off by the U.S., IS is still more than capable of launching effective and devastating attacks, as last week’s Brussels bombing illustrates, even while the Obama Administration touts that it is eviscerating IS.

With Iraqi and U.S. forces focused on taking Mosul, IS will continue to take advantage of targeting opportunities where its opponents are spread thin. Additionally, there remains the possibility IS could move its center of operations. If IS is removed from Northern Iraq the current anti-IS coalition may collapse. Already reports indicate that Kurdish forces and Shia militias are preparing to battle each other over dominance in Northern Iraq. This would be a highly problematic especially as IS is likely to remain a viable threat even after ouster from Mosul and the surrounding area.