Leaked Security Memo Warns of Attacks Against Ghana and Togo

A recently leaked security memo, dated April 9, 2016, revealed the intention of an Islamic terrorist organization to attack Ghana and its neighbor Togo. While no terrorist organization has been named, the likely threat will come from Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

Ghana’s intelligence agency the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) stated the choice of targeting Ghana is to show that former French colonies are not the only targets. Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Ivory Coast were all former French colonies, and all were recently targeted by AQIM.

Ghana and Togo have been, for the most part, untouched by Islamic terrorism. Ghana has earned the reputation of being one of the more stable and steady democracies in the region, and Togo has remained, for the most part, stable despite political violence arising during elections. Ghana has also begun to see some of its people go to join the Islamic State (IS), although there has only been a small number.

The information on the potential attack was obtained from a man detained by Ivory Coast forces after last month’s attack. Ivory Coast had long been unaffected by Islamic terrorism, and the country being targeted illustrates the insecurity of nations in the region. Senegal, another nation who has been untouched by terrorism, took part in counterterrorism training with the U.S. earlier this year to be better prepared for an attack.

The attack on the Ivory Coast should have served as a wake up call to all West African nations that they are all in danger of a terrorist attack. French forces working to fight AQIM in Northern Mali may be pushing the group into other nations. With many of the surrounding countries having low counterterrorism capabilities, AQIM will have little trouble launching attacks on soft targets.

AQIM has been seemingly moving South, possibly to avoid French forces in the north. Last November the group launched an attack on the Radisson Blu hotel in Southern Mali that killed 21. This was followed by an attack earlier this year on the Splendid hotel and Cappuccino Café in Burkina Faso killing 28.

While Ghana and Togo are considered to have a high level of crime, similar to the Ivory Coast, most of the crimes perpetrated are street theft and burglary. The primary area of concern for both nations are ethnic disputes. In Ghana, the conflicts have largely arisen from land and chieftaincy disputes, and they remain a constant threat for security forces to handle. In Togo, the ethnic conflicts arise between primarily two ethnic groups, the Ewe and Kabre. The Kabre have held the majority of high political position despite only representing 10% of the population, which has garnered animosity from the larger Ewe group. Violence generally only takes place at protests, but there is always the chance for a larger conflict to arise.

While neither of these nations face the instability that terrorist organizations thrive on, they are more than capable of playing off of ethnic tensions to incite larger conflicts. What is more troublesome is security forces are more than likely more focused on these internal conflicts than outside terrorism. Security experts in Ghana fault the current regime’s focus on warding off dissenters rather than terrorism as major reason why the country is not prepared for a terrorist strike.

Porous borders have allowed for weapons to be shipped in from the Ivory Coast to violent ethnic groups, and this will allow for IS or AQIM to easily enter the country. While these groups’ main disputes are grounded in territorial claims not religious, they illustrate the ability for violence to grow in Ghana.

It is also in question whether Ghana can defend against the threat of terrorism. Ghana participates in annual military training and exercises with the U.S., and Israel has recently committed to train Ghana’s counterterrorism forces. However, their overall military and counterterrorism capabilities are still lacking.

Togo’s counterterrorism capabilities are even lower than Ghana’s. The U.S. has sent personnel over to Togo in the past, but their training was too miniscule to make any meaningful difference. Togo spends roughly $55 million on its military, which is far less than nations who are struggling to combat terrorism spend annually.

Ghana and Togo are the newest targets in the eyes of groups like AQIM and IS. Neither of these two nations have enough experience or capability to ward off a series of attacks, but with regional support, they may be able to ward off this new threat.