Situation Report: Kim Jong Un reportedly gravely ill

Updated 9:40 AM

A few thoughts on press reports that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may be gravely ill after reported recent heart surgery.

— According to press reports, the 36-year old Kim recently underwent heart surgery that may not have gone well. On April 20, a Seoul-based news website run by North Korean defectors, the Daily NK, reported Kim had undergone a “cardiovascular surgical procedure” and had largely recovered. A CNN report yesterday attributed to “a US official with direct knowledge of the situation” claimed Kim was gravely ill after the procedure.

— The South Korean media is claiming today that Kim is recovering from heart surgery that took place on April 12.

— There were suspicions Kim was unwell after there was no sign of him on April 15, the nation’s major holiday and birthday of his grandfather Kim Il Sung, the founder of North Korea.

— Kim is overweight, a heavy smoker and overworked. Westerners who have spent time with Kim have observed him being winded while walking, which is unusual for a 36-year old. His father Kim Jong Il, who died at age 70 in 2011, reportedly suffered from obesity, heart disease, and diabetes. He was a heavy smoker and drinker.

— These reports could be totally wrong. Kim is extremely paranoid and could be laying low for a host of reasons, possibly fear of acquiring the coronavirus which is probably soaring in North Korea. North Korea is famously secretive and getting accurate information on the inner workings of the Kim regime is difficult. There have been many false reports on the health and whereabouts of North Korean leaders in the past.

— Is Kim actually ill with coronavirus? There have been no reports of this, but there is speculation about this in Washington today. Due to Kim’s health problems, he could get severely ill from the virus.

— The North Korean regime is a Kim family business. Kim has been ruthless in eliminating anyone who could try to oust him from power. Kim Jong Un’s half brother Kim Jong Nam was assassinated at the Kuala Lumpur Airport with sarin, a chemical weapons agent, in 2017. He had his uncle Jang Song Thaek killed in 2013. Kim also reportedly has executed hundreds of government and military officials.

— Kim may not have a succession plan, but his high profile sister Kim Yo Jong is a likely successor. The 32-year old Ms. Kim was her brother’s representative at the 2018 Seoul Olympics and impressed Western observers with her warm smile, business attire and confidence. Ms. Kim attended both summits with President Trump with her brother and was recently described by The Guardian as his “alter ego.”

— A succession battle if Kim Jong Un dies is unpredictable. The Kim family and senior generals could clash. My guess is they will defer to Kim Yo Jong, but this is far from certain.

— I also assume the United States has offered to send top US doctors to North Korea in response to these reports.