Situation Report: Palestinian violence surges; Hamas fires missiles on Jerusalem Day

Note from the editor: this Situation Report updates Dr. Wurmser’s May 10 article Anatomy of an intentional escalation: Israel’s approaching hot summer

In a major escalation of the unrest over the last month which the Palestinian Authority and Hamas incited and directed, Hamas this evening launched seven missiles onto Jerusalem, causing property damage and shock, but no injuries.  The attack coincided with an Israeli flag procession in Jerusalem held every year on “Jerusalem Day,” which celebrates the city’s reunification in 1967. At the same time, across southern Israel, there were further missile attacks from Gaza.

In response, the Israeli Defense Forces closed off the area around Gaza, and warned Israelis throughout the country to prepare for a night of missile attacks. Tension also is rising along Israel’s northern border and in Lebanon. Hizballah asked all the Palestinians to attack Israel and claimed week ago claimed it mobilized all its forces 100%.

The IDF is in an unusually high state of mobilization because of large, preplanned military exercise with Cyprus and Greece. It is the largest exercise and mobilization of the IDF in years, and started on May 10. Even so, Israel reinforced police and other IDF units throughout the country, in expectation of unrest and attempted terror attacks.

Hamas’ escalation to missiles changes the dynamic of the current unrest.  Until now, Israel was in a very difficult position, navigating between avoiding a display of weakness but also avoiding provocation. Despite six weeks of rioting and unrest, and the complexity of allowing nearly 100,000 Muslim worshippers to ascend the Temple Mount to pray for the Laylat al-Qadr on Saturday night, no Arab has yet been seriously injured.

Israel has yielded on several issues, which could have been seen as weakness, but also allowed the Jerusalem Flag procession to continue, albeit on a modified route, to show resolve in an unprovocative way.  The missiles onto Jerusalem from Gaza were timed to coincide and distrust that procession, which in fact was cancelled mid-stream as a result.  This was the first time in six decades the procession was obstructed.

Hamas’ use of missiles to some extent punctured the tensions surrounding the civil unrest and refocuses the conflict onto a military-on-military clash.

Hamas, the PIJ and the PA seek further escalation.  Hamas on May 10 called on the Palestinians to riot and attack Israelis until Israel evacuates a cluster of houses in a Jerusalem neighborhood and removes all police from the Temple Mount. Still, by Sunday night the “popular” uprising seemingly failed to materialize to the levels sought and showed signs of dissipating, which is why Hamas chose to escalate militarily. Hamas and the PA remain determined to escalate because they and Hizballah, Iran and Turkey are confident that violence will split Israel from the United States.  Statements not only from the EU and the United States have given them a reasonable expectation this, but the UN Security Council’s meeting later today further promises to isolate Israel. In short, the international community, including the United States, is one of the strongest causes of the current inflammation and escalation of the situation over the next few days.