A Nuclear Iran: The Case for Action

Though Lewis’ conjecture did not come to fruition, the validity of his overall argument still remains. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to explore some of the ideas introduced in the previously mentioned article in greater detail and to introduce new considerations regarding Iran and the prospect of its possessing nuclear weapons. The discussion will delve into the reasons why Iran, more so than any other state, may not be swayed by the fear of its own destruction or the immorality of nuclear weapons use, and thus, is much more likely to actually employ such weapons. In light of the forthcoming discussion, the reader will comprehend why Iran’s development of nuclear weapons should be opposed and why a more active posture should be adopted toward preventing such an occurrence.

Influence of Shia Islam in Governance 

Since 1979, when the Islamic Revolution occurred, Iran has been ruled by a regime which bases its legitimacy on tenets of Shia Islam and the necessity of having religious figures in control of the government. At the top of the government lie the Supreme Leader, currently Ali Khamenei, and the Council of Guardians, a twelve member body of religious figures. These figures are all trained in the Shia institutions of Iran and hold significant religious authority among the people. The president of Iran, currently Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is the most senior elected official of the government, and he is a layman with no religious training, unlike nearly all of Iran’s previous presidents. However, Ahmadinejad’s religious devotion is well-known. With this general background on Iran’s form of governance, it becomes clear that Shia Islam and its belief system play a fundamental role in Iran’s regime.

As the purpose of this paper is to detail particularities of Iran that make it more likely to employ weapons of mass destruction, a detailed discussion of the history behind the Sunni-Shia split will not be provided.4 However, this paper will focus on particular aspects of Shia belief and practice that need to be brought to the attention of the policymaker and the general public. As Shia Islam plays such a major role in the political life of Iran, knowledge of particular aspects of this religion is quite useful. The Shia nature of Iran’s regime has a direct affect on its dealing with foreign policy issues and other states. Accordingly, certain aspects of Shia belief will be covered in an effort to show just how dangerous Iran’s possession of nuclear weapons would be.

The Hidden Imam & Shia Eschatology

Shia Muslims, who compose a minority of roughly 10% of Islam’s adherents, differ in some substantial aspects from the more predominant Sunni. The main difference rests over “who should hold the political leadership of the Islamic community and what the religious dimension of that leadership should be.”5 In the early development of Islam, the Shia held that this leadership should have passed down through the descendents of Muhammad, in contrast to the Sunni, who held that leadership should be granted from communal approval and not just station of birth. In Shia Islam, this leader was known as the Imam, whose authority, both worldly and religious, was passed down in a style of dynastic succession. Ali, the cousin and son-in-law of Muhammad, was the first imam. The majority of the Shia, including those in Iran, practice what is known as Twelver Shi’ism, in that they uphold the succession of twelve imams. However, this chain of succession was disrupted with the vanishing of the twelfth imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi. According to John Esposito, “Shii theology resolved this dilemma with its doctrine of the absence or occultation of the Imam and his return in the future as the Mahdi.”6 The Mahdi, also known as the Hidden Imam, is not considered dead, but rather in hiding, and will usher in a new period of peace and justice upon his return.

In many ways, the return of the Mahdi is roughly equivalent to the return of Jesus in Christian belief. The Mahdi’s reappearance will occur shortly prior to the Day of Judgement and he will “lead the forces of righteousness against the forces of evil in one final apocalyptic battle in which the enemies of the Imam will be defeated.”⁷ A number of different signs are said to precede the return of the Mahdi, but a particular few are especially worthy of mention. Some of these include: “Before his coming will come the red death and the white death. The red death is the sword and the white death is the plague.”⁸ Also, “There will be a great conflict in the land of Syria until it is destroyed,” and, “Death and fear will afflict the people of Baghdad and Iraq. A fire will appear in the sky and a redness will cover them.”⁹ Obviously, such occurrences do not sound all that unusual in relation to today’s headlines. As Ahmadinejad and other Shia believe the return of the Mahdi is near, they may very well be interpreting current events through this prism. With this view in mind, Iran’s leadership may be acting in such a manner as to facilitate the process of the Mahdi’s return. Such a regime in possession of nuclear weapons would be a truly dangerous development.