Are the Chinese helping the Iranians build more drones and missiles?

Trade between Iran and Tajikistan exploded in the first quarter of this year. It jumped 41,105% year-on-year. The two nations don’t share a land border, and the Tajiks themselves make very little that would be of value to Iran in the middle of a war, but Tajikistan has historically served as a cutout for the Chinese, allowing them to send equipment and material to Iran and evade sanctions. In this sense, Tajikistan is a “cutout” for Beijing.

The standout surge element in Q1 of 2026 in exports to Iran from Tajikistan was “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machines.” That is a broad category, and the actual exports to Iran this year likely had very little to do with nuclear technology. But what is being shipped via this route?

Almost certainly, the answer is parts for more Iranian drones, missiles, and machinery to replace those damaged or destroyed by American and Israeli forces. This would include:

Precision CNC machine tools and related manufacturing equipment. These are likely critical to the Iranians right now. Iran’s drone and missile factories need high-precision tooling to produce airframes, engine parts, and guidance housings. Chinese firms (often small shell companies) have supplied exactly this type of equipment to Iranian entities like HESA and Pars Aero via evasion networks in the past. Routing shipments through Tajikistan fits precisely with the massive, unexplained jump in “nuclear reactors, boilers, and machines” exports.

Microelectronics, microchips, inertial sensors, gyroscopes, and accelerometers. These are the “brains” of drones and missiles. Iranian Shahed and Ababil drones rely heavily on Chinese-made components for navigation and flight control. Chinese firms have been documented supplying these exact items (often disguised as civilian electronics) in the past. PRC-origin components now account for up to ~60% of parts in some Shahed variants (up from a minority share in earlier models).

Drone-specific propulsion and component kits (engines, propellers, flight-control modules). China produces (or reverse-engineers) the MD550 and similar small engines used in Iranian one-way drones. Routing partially assembled kits or subcomponents through Tajikistan would allow Iran to rapidly rebuild stocks.

Advanced navigation and targeting aids (e.g., BeiDou-compatible modules)
Iran has already shifted military systems to China’s BeiDou satellite navigation (more jamming-resistant than GPS-guided). Providing hardened receivers or encrypted modules via Tajikistan would enhance drone/missile accuracy against US/Israeli air defenses and jamming, a real force multiplier in the current fighting.

All this is bad enough because it suggests strongly that the Iranians are restocking, rebuilding, and intend to continue the fight well into the future. What is worse, however, is that there are strong indications that the Chinese are helping the Iranians make their drones and missiles more lethal. The accuracy of Iranian attacks is improving the longer the fight goes on.

Former French foreign intelligence director Alain Juillet told France’s independent Tocsin podcast in March that the shift by Iran to the use of the Chinese BeiDou satellite navigation system had made its targeting much more accurate than it was in the June war with Israel.

“One of the surprises in this war is that Iranian missiles are more accurate compared to the war that took place eight months ago, raising many questions about the guidance systems of these missiles,” Juillet, who served as the director of intelligence for the General Directorate for External Security from 2002 to 2003, told Tocsin.

What this means is a shift to what analysts call “precise mass.” The Iranians are still able to send swarms of drones and missiles against targets, but now they are much more likely to hit exactly what they want. Analysts note that attacks on oil and gas infrastructure have shown that Iranian strikes are becoming increasingly precise and lethal. The BeiDou system allows the Iranians to hit targets with accuracy even when heavy jamming is employed.

Originally published by AND Magazine