Thucydides and impending war with China

In his opening remarks to President Trump before the recently completed summit in Beijing, Chinese leader Xi Jinping had this to say.

“The world has come to another crossroads. Can China and the United States overcome the Thucydides Trap and create a new paradigm of major country relations?”

There has been a lot of buzz in the press about this comment. Most of it fails to adequately address its true import. Let me explain.

Thucydides lived in Athens in the 5th century BC. He was, among other things, a general in the Peloponnesian War, a devastating conflict between Athens and Sparta and their allies in which Athens was ultimately forced to surrender. He subsequently wrote a famous history of that conflict, which was effectively a “world war” between the Greek city-states.

Xi perhaps has his understanding of who and what actually caused the Peloponnesian War a little tangled in his mind. Ancient Greek history may not be a required subject in the training of Communist Party cadre in Red China. Still, the import of his words is unmistakable.

If we, China and the United States, come into conflict, there will be war. One of us will be destroyed. It will be you. America will be humbled as was Athens.

Let’s be clear on what happened to Athens when it lost to Sparta. Following its surrender, Athens was forced to destroy all the fortifications guarding the city. It gave up its entire navy except for a token 12 ships. It was stripped of all its territories outside of Athens proper. Its democratic government was abolished and replaced by an oligarchy known as the Thirty Tyrants, which answered to Sparta.

Athens became, in effect, a vassal state of Sparta.

Beginning a summit with a historical reference suggesting that the United States will be crushed and subjugated if it does not exercise appropriate caution is a pretty dramatic move.

It got worse.

“Regarding the Taiwan question, Xi stressed that it is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations.

If it is handled properly, the bilateral relationship will enjoy overall stability. Otherwise, the two countries will have clashes and even conflicts, putting the entire relationship in great jeopardy, Xi said, urging the U.S. side to exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.

Safeguarding cross-Strait peace and stability is the biggest common denominator between China and the United States, Xi said, emphasizing that “Taiwan independence” and cross-Strait peace are as irreconcilable as fire and water.”

Xinhua – the official state news agency of the People’s Republic of China.

For years, we have tracked the rise of Communist China and its increasingly aggressive moves against this country. Our critical infrastructure has been subjected to sustained cyber attacks to penetrate our systems and allow the Chinese to shut off our water, power, and communications. Our defense laboratories and agencies have been penetrated, and our advantage in defense technology methodically stripped away. Chinese agents have been apprehended outside our military bases, photographing sensitive equipment and facilities. Balloons carrying sophisticated sensors have done doughnuts over bases housing our nuclear forces. The country has been flooded with fentanyl and other drugs by a cabal of Mexican drug lords and Chinese chemical companies. Hundreds of thousands of Americans have died.

Meanwhile, the Communist Chinese have engaged in an unrelenting defense buildup aimed not at the defense of their territory but at aggressive expansion. As they have done so, the Chinese have made increasingly bold claims to international waters and the territory of other nations. On any given day, their gray zone forces are engaged in what amounts to open conflict with other Asian nations like the Philippines.

These are not the actions of a nation that seeks to coexist. These are not the actions of a nation seeking acceptance, respect, and a mutually beneficial relationship. These are the actions of a nation that seeks world domination, and that knows we stand in its way.

“The Co-Prosperity Sphere in the Far East is based on the spirit of Hakko Ichiu [Eight Corners of the Universe under One Roof]… We must control the western Pacific… We must request United States reconsideration, not only for the sake of Japan but for the world’s sake. And if this request is not heard, there is no hope for Japanese-American relations.”

Japanese Foreign Minister Yōsuke Matsuoka, January 27, 1941

For years before Pearl Harbor, we assessed that the Japanese might well at some point start a war with the United States. We just didn’t understand that they meant to do it when they did. We assessed, deliberated, and pondered, and yet somehow always assumed that any war with Japan would be at some uncertain date in the future. We always assumed we had more time.

We may be out of time concerning the Chinese threat. ‘Someday’ may be getting perilously close to being today. It is time to wake up and move with a sense of urgency, or perhaps regrettably, at some point in the future, an American Thucydides will be writing about how we lost the war.

Originally published by AND Magazine