As Iran Seeks to Deepen its Influence in Iraq, Many Object in Protests

Over the past few weeks, protests have erupted in Iraq, with about 250 dead and 5000 injured this month at the hands of security forces. Demonstrations have been held against Iranian influence, a deteriorating economy , inaccessible government services and corruption. The protesters are demanding reform and the resignation of Iraqi Prime Minister Adel Abdul-Mahdi. A significant majority of the protesters have been Shiites. The Kurdistan Regional Government refused to partake in the protests in a bid to keep political tensions calm. Sunni majority cities have also refused to partake in the protests, citing fears of retribution and public backlash, and also increased security presence in their cities.

“[The Sunnis have] fear of being accused of belonging to terrorist organizations like [ISIS] and working for external powers…[Sunnis fear the] ruthless violence the state is committing against the Shiite protesters,” said Ahmed al-Jubouri, former governor of Saladin Governorate. However, he did add that in mixed cities, a minority of Sunnis have joined the Shiites in protests.

This is an interesting statement coming from an individual sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury Department for corruption and involvement with “Iran-backed proxies that operate outside of state control.”

The Iranian government has significant influence in Iraq. Abdul-Mahdi ordered Iran-backed militias – numbering about 140,000 fighters who fall under the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) (Formerly received instructions from PM Rouhani) – to operate under the command of the Iraqi armed forces in a strategy to balance Iraq’s ties with the U.S. and Iran. Iranian-backed militias have been instructed to cut all ties to Iran and Shiite factions or risk being disarmed.

However, Mahdi’s order further enables Iranian influence in the Iraqi government – similar to the militias’ defiance of former PM Abadi’s orders in 2018. Merging the PMF with the Iraqi armed forces allows Iran to directly influence Defense and security decisions as some commanders in the PMF still receive instructions directly from Tehran. This move by Abdul-Mahdi thereby appeases Iran more than it does the U.S.

A significant number of the militias in the PMF have close ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). Some of these groups – Kataib Hezbollah, Hezbollah al-Nujabah, Badr Organization, and Asaib Ahl al-haq – have been designated as terrorist organizations by the U.S. government. These groups also murdered over 600 U.S. troops and wreaked havoc on many Iraqi civilians during the 2003 war in Iraq. Brian Hook, the U.S. Special Representative for Iran, stated that the Iranian government has spent about $16 billion dollars on militias in Iraq and Syria.

In September Abdul-Mahdi removed the country’s top counterterrorism commander Lt. Gen. Abdul -Wahab al-Saadi. Al-Saadi was exceptionally effective in the fight against ISIS, but was transferred to the Defense Ministry where al-Saadi said “there’s no job for [him]…” and would rather retire. Iraqi civilians protested al-Saadi’s removal as Iranian influence.  Iranian-backed Iraqi politicians were uncomfortable with Lt. Gen. al-Saadi’s close relationship with the U.S.-led coalition.

With hundreds dead in light of security forces crackdown on protesters, Iraqi PM Abdul-Mahdi offered his resignation. The President Barham Salih accepted the resignation and plans to send election bills to the parliament for votes.

However, the Iranian government is doing all it can to prevent Abdul-Mahdi from resigning. Abdul-Mahdi became prime minister of Iraq with the aid of Iranian-backed parties, Fatah Alliance and Sairoon Alliance.

IRGC Commander Qasem Soleimani visited Iraq amidst the ongoing protests with the aim to prevent Abdul Mahdi’s resignation and subdue Iran’s security apparatuses. Soleimani led an Iraqi national security meeting in Iraq in place of PM Abdul-Mahdi.

“We in Iran know how to deal with protests,” Soleimani reportedly said at the meeting. “This happened in Iran and we got it under control.”

IRGC Commander Soleimani Visited Iraq on October 2^nd 2019 to chair Iraqi national security meeting

Protesters have been murdered by Iranian-backed militias in Iraq – these militias have been placed under control of the Iraqi government but still take orders from Tehran. Following Soleimani’s visit, Iranian-backed forces stationed snipers on rooftops targeted at protesters.  Security forces also targeted protesters, launching tear gas canisters directly at their heads. There were reports of men, thought to be Iranian-backed, wearing all black clothes and concealing their identities with masks attacking protesters.

In retaliation to the government’s Iran-influenced targeting and killing of protesters, protesters revolted in violence by setting ablaze the Iranian consulate and its flag. Protesters also killed Wissam al-Alawi, the commander of the Iran-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq, one of the Iran-backed militias – under the PMF – responsible for targeting and murdering protesters.

With Iran forcibly trying to enforce its wishes on thousands of disenchanted Iraqis seeking total change in their government, there is a possibility that we could be witnessing the coming of an Iraqi revolution. The U.S. and its allies must pay attention to the protests as this unrest could worsen the already fragile security of the region.