Putin was not ready to launch a war in the Spring
The widely shared view among some pundits of international politics is that Vladimir Putin was planning to launch a wide...
Andrei Illarionov
Senior Analyst for Russian and European Affairs
Dr. Andrei Illarionov is a Russian economist and public figure residing in Washington, D.C., USA. In 1992 he was an Economic Advisor to Russia’s Acting Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar, in 1993-1994 he was Chief Economic Advisor to Russia’s Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, in 2000-2005 he was Chief Economic Advisor to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Russian Sherpa in G-8.
Andrei Illarionov graduated from the St. Petersburg State University (SPSU, Department of Economics) in 1983. He completed his Ph.D. in Economics at the same institution in 1987 with a dissertation on history of government finance of developed nations in the XX century. He also studied economics in Austria (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg), the United Kingdom (Birmingham University) and the United States (Georgetown University) as well as political studies (Stanford University).
After his graduation from the St. Petersburg State University, Dr. Illarionov worked as an assistant professor at the SPSU and then as a head of the analytical group of the research laboratory at the St. Petersburg University of Economics and Finance. There he was recruited into the small group of ambitious young economists, mostly from Moscow and St. Petersburg, who prepared themselves to transform the Soviet planned economy into the market one.
The August revolution of 1991 brought this group of economists into the power and Dr. Illarionov became Deputy Director of the Russian Government Centre for Economic Reform, the think tank involved in designing substantial portion of the economic reforms implemented. Essentially, he became one of the advisers to the then Deputy Prime Minister and later Acting Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar.
After the Russian parliament voted Gaidar off the power and supported Victor Chernomyrdin as new Russian Prime Minister, Chernomyrdin, in April 1993 has chosen Dr. Illarionov as his Chief Economic Adviser. Substantial disagreements between them over policies after 10 months in office led Illarionov to resign and to create a small, but turned out quite influential, market-oriented Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) in Moscow. He became its Director and then President. The IEA happened to be the only research institution in Russia that correctly predicted the financial crisis of 1998 and massive devaluation of the ruble.
In the Spring and Summer of 1998 Dr. Illarionov was virtually the only voice insisting that Russian ruble was overvalued and would be devalued regardless of efforts by the Russian Government, the Russian Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to resist this inevitability. In August 1998 the ruble has been devalued, the government has defaulted on its foreign debt and has introduced partial control on capital flows, thereby triggering a national as well as regional financial and economic crisis.
After Vladimir Putin became Acting President in early 2000 he has invited Dr. Illarionov to become his Chief Economic Adviser. In April 2000 Andrei Illarionov became the first appointment in the new administration. Next month he became the Russian Sherpa to the G7/G8. While serving in President Putin’s administration, Dr. Illarionov was the driving force behind the adoption of a 13% flat income tax, the Russia’s government’s creation of a Stabilization Fund for windfall oil revenues, reducing size of government and the early repayment of Russia’s foreign debt. Under his leadership, Russia became a full-fledged member of the G-8 in 2002. Dr. Illarionov was involved in designing and implementing core elements of macroeconomic, structural and institutional policies that brought Russia almost complete elimination of the foreign debt, establishing the Stabilization Fund, and the 7% average economic growth that doubled economic size of the country as well as average incomes of population within a decade.
In January 2005 Dr. Illarionov resigned from his post as a Russian Sherpa and in December 2005 from his post as a Presidential Advisor. He has announced three main reasons for his resignation: transformation of Russia into a politically non-free country, the capture of the Russian state by the corporation of secret police officers (“siloviki”), and horrific corruption within the Russian leadership.
Dr. Illarionov was invited to the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity in Washington, USA, and he was its Senior Fellow from October 2006 till January 2021.
While in Cato Dr. Illarionov was involved in preparation of the Cato Index of Human Freedom, has prepared studies on nature of the Russian political regime, history of the Russian reforms, Russian-Georgian War, Russian-Ukrainian war, political history of bringing Mr. Putin into power, origin of freedom and birth of the Western civilization.
In January 2014 he publicly warned Ukraine that Mr. Putin is going to occupy and annex Crimea, the prediction that turned out to be true two months later.
On 14 April 2007, and 9 June 2007, Illarionov took part in opposition Dissenters' Marches in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, respectively. Illarionov is one of the 34 first signatories of the online anti-Putin manifesto "Putin must go", published on 10 March 2010. In October 2012 Dr. Illarionov has been elected into the Coordination Council of the Russian opposition. In May 2018 he has been elected into the Permanent Committee of the Free Russia Forum.
Dr. Illarionov is a member of the Mont-Pelerin Society, the Economic Freedom Network, the European Association of Comparative Economic Studies and International Institute of Public Finance. Dr. Illarionov received honorary doctorates in economics from the SPSU, the Financial Academy in Moscow, and the Kyrgyz Slavonic University in Bishkek. He is also a Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. Over the course of his career, organizations have bestowed upon him the titles of Man of the Year, Forecaster of the Year, Financial Oracle of the Year.
Dr. Illarionov has co-authored several programs for Russian government, has written three books and over 1000 articles, op-eds, and comments on Russian economic, social and political issues. He is a regular commentator on current events in Russia.
Dr. Andrei Illarionov is a Russian economist and public figure residing in Washington, D.C., USA. In 1992 he was an Economic Advisor to Russia’s Acting Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar, in 1993-1994 he was Chief Economic Advisor to Russia’s Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin, in 2000-2005 he was Chief Economic Advisor to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Russian Sherpa in G-8.
Andrei Illarionov graduated from the St. Petersburg State University (SPSU, Department of Economics) in 1983. He completed his Ph.D. in Economics at the same institution in 1987 with a dissertation on history of government finance of developed nations in the XX century. He also studied economics in Austria (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg), the United Kingdom (Birmingham University) and the United States (Georgetown University) as well as political studies (Stanford University).
After his graduation from the St. Petersburg State University, Dr. Illarionov worked as an assistant professor at the SPSU and then as a head of the analytical group of the research laboratory at the St. Petersburg University of Economics and Finance. There he was recruited into the small group of ambitious young economists, mostly from Moscow and St. Petersburg, who prepared themselves to transform the Soviet planned economy into the market one.
The August revolution of 1991 brought this group of economists into the power and Dr. Illarionov became Deputy Director of the Russian Government Centre for Economic Reform, the think tank involved in designing substantial portion of the economic reforms implemented. Essentially, he became one of the advisers to the then Deputy Prime Minister and later Acting Prime Minister Yegor Gaidar.
After the Russian parliament voted Gaidar off the power and supported Victor Chernomyrdin as new Russian Prime Minister, Chernomyrdin, in April 1993 has chosen Dr. Illarionov as his Chief Economic Adviser. Substantial disagreements between them over policies after 10 months in office led Illarionov to resign and to create a small, but turned out quite influential, market-oriented Institute of Economic Analysis (IEA) in Moscow. He became its Director and then President. The IEA happened to be the only research institution in Russia that correctly predicted the financial crisis of 1998 and massive devaluation of the ruble.
In the Spring and Summer of 1998 Dr. Illarionov was virtually the only voice insisting that Russian ruble was overvalued and would be devalued regardless of efforts by the Russian Government, the Russian Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund to resist this inevitability. In August 1998 the ruble has been devalued, the government has defaulted on its foreign debt and has introduced partial control on capital flows, thereby triggering a national as well as regional financial and economic crisis.
After Vladimir Putin became Acting President in early 2000 he has invited Dr. Illarionov to become his Chief Economic Adviser. In April 2000 Andrei Illarionov became the first appointment in the new administration. Next month he became the Russian Sherpa to the G7/G8. While serving in President Putin’s administration, Dr. Illarionov was the driving force behind the adoption of a 13% flat income tax, the Russia’s government’s creation of a Stabilization Fund for windfall oil revenues, reducing size of government and the early repayment of Russia’s foreign debt. Under his leadership, Russia became a full-fledged member of the G-8 in 2002. Dr. Illarionov was involved in designing and implementing core elements of macroeconomic, structural and institutional policies that brought Russia almost complete elimination of the foreign debt, establishing the Stabilization Fund, and the 7% average economic growth that doubled economic size of the country as well as average incomes of population within a decade.
In January 2005 Dr. Illarionov resigned from his post as a Russian Sherpa and in December 2005 from his post as a Presidential Advisor. He has announced three main reasons for his resignation: transformation of Russia into a politically non-free country, the capture of the Russian state by the corporation of secret police officers (“siloviki”), and horrific corruption within the Russian leadership.
Dr. Illarionov was invited to the Cato Institute's Center for Global Liberty and Prosperity in Washington, USA, and he was its Senior Fellow from October 2006 till January 2021.
While in Cato Dr. Illarionov was involved in preparation of the Cato Index of Human Freedom, has prepared studies on nature of the Russian political regime, history of the Russian reforms, Russian-Georgian War, Russian-Ukrainian war, political history of bringing Mr. Putin into power, origin of freedom and birth of the Western civilization.
In January 2014 he publicly warned Ukraine that Mr. Putin is going to occupy and annex Crimea, the prediction that turned out to be true two months later.
On 14 April 2007, and 9 June 2007, Illarionov took part in opposition Dissenters' Marches in Moscow and Saint Petersburg, respectively. Illarionov is one of the 34 first signatories of the online anti-Putin manifesto "Putin must go", published on 10 March 2010. In October 2012 Dr. Illarionov has been elected into the Coordination Council of the Russian opposition. In May 2018 he has been elected into the Permanent Committee of the Free Russia Forum.
Dr. Illarionov is a member of the Mont-Pelerin Society, the Economic Freedom Network, the European Association of Comparative Economic Studies and International Institute of Public Finance. Dr. Illarionov received honorary doctorates in economics from the SPSU, the Financial Academy in Moscow, and the Kyrgyz Slavonic University in Bishkek. He is also a Member of the Russian Academy of Natural Sciences. Over the course of his career, organizations have bestowed upon him the titles of Man of the Year, Forecaster of the Year, Financial Oracle of the Year.
Dr. Illarionov has co-authored several programs for Russian government, has written three books and over 1000 articles, op-eds, and comments on Russian economic, social and political issues. He is a regular commentator on current events in Russia.