Chavez proclaims himself winner in Venezuelan elections

The results of the Venezuelan state and municipal elections that took place on November 23rd 2008 have been interpreted in many ways. Some analysts believe that Chavez was victorious because his political party the, PSUV, (the United Socialist Party) won 17 of the 22 state governorships, including the state of Barinas (his home state, where his brother, Adan was elected governor). In addition the PSUV was able to obtain two-thirds of the total national vote. However, the opposition also did well by winning in critically important areas of the country. In spite of this achievement Chavez considers himself the winner and presses forward to change the Constitution and make himself dictator for life. Still other analysts are saying that it was a victory for the opposition since they were able to capture the most populous and economically important cities and states. In the grand picture, the results show that while Chavez’s popularity has taken a downward slide, the new scenario continues to be complicated for those who want Chavez to leave the presidency. 

The state and municipal elections strongly favored President Chávez and his political party, the PSUV. Voter turnout reached an historic 65%, the National Electoral Council announced. The PSUV and its allies won 77% of governorships and 81% of municipal posts. Yet the opposition won 4 out of 5 municipalities comprising Caracas and 5 of 22 governorships in states that produce 70% of the country’s gross national product and contain 45% of the population.

Those states include:

1. Zulia is a territory that has brought huge wealth to the country due to its oil and mineral exploitation, but it is also one of the major agricultural areas of Venezuela. Manuel Rosales, who has been accused by the regime of corruption and continues to be a victim of Chavez’s rage, was elected mayor of Maracaibo, the capital of this state, and Pablo Perez also of the opposition was elected governor. 
2. Nueva Esparta is located off the northeast Caribbean coast of Venezuela. It is the only insular state of Venezuela and is very important for tourism. Margarita Island is located here.
3. Carabobo is the country’s main industrial center. Important shopping and entertainment centers are located here and tourism plays an important role. The state-owned petrochemical and oil industrial complex of PDVSA is in Carabobo.
4. Táchira was the state where oil was discovered in Venezuela. Currently, its main economic revenues come from the production of coffee and pineapple. Cattle and agricultural activities play an important role in this state’s economy. There is also a strong industrial sector and tourism.

Miranda ranks high among Venezuelan states in agricultural and pastoral production, and government irrigation projects have resulted in the expansion of its large-scale farming and in the diversification of its agriculture. It is second in terms of population and includes the eastern part of the Capital City, Caracas.

It is fair to say that Chavez basically won in the rural and very poor areas and lost in the urban areas. However, this excludes Sucre, a municipality of Caracas, containing 720,000 mostly poor inhabitants where the opposition candidate, Carlos Ocartiz captured the vote. And in metropolitan Caracas, the opposition candidate, Antonio Ladezma was elected. In spite of these dramatic and important gains by his opponents, Chavez told reporters “There is a categorical success,". “Today, it is Venezuela’s victory”. “Chávez is not leaving,” the president said on TV. “Chávez is staying, and if God wants this and gives me life, I’ll be with you until 2019 or 2021.” On Monday, he said his plan “could perfectly well be prepared in December and then in January – boom, immediately starting the year.”

Barely a week has passed and President Hugo Chávez has already resurrected his plan to lift a constitutional ban on successive re-election, which was rejected by voters in a referendum last December. Although the recent results give the opposition more ground to campaign against Chavez’s reelection, he is trying to build momentum. Venezuela is heavily dependent on oil exports and the collapse in its price in recent months has not yet been felt on the streets but could start to hurt Chavez’s popularity with voters who benefit directly from the government’s handouts, mainly the poor. The PSUV can request the constitutional amendment with signatures from 15% of registered voters, about 2.5 million people, or 30% of the votes of a Congress Chavez controls. The electoral authority would have to call a referendum within 30 days of receiving the proposal and verifying the signatures.

Chavez is not wasting time in announcing his intentions: “Today, we begin the battle for the constitutional amendment," Chavez told cheering supporters. “If we are going to do it, let’s do it quickly. If we are going to do it, there’s no tomorrow, no, no, it’s now, now,” he added, without giving a date. He is convinced that the results show support for his Revolution. In fact, Chavez has announced that a constitutional amendment allowing him to stay in office as long as he wins elections should be ready by February 2009 at the latest. “We’re going to achieve it,” Chávez declared. "We’re going to demonstrate who rules in Venezuela. If God gives me life and health, I will be with you until 2021." “Uh-ah, Chávez no se va,” he sang: “Chávez isn’t leaving.”

We should keep in mind that the elections were far from free and fair.  During the campaign, Chavez went to extraordinary lengths to weaken the opposition, disqualifying 300 opposition candidates and spending vast amounts of public funds on propaganda for the PSUV. His verbal attacks against opposition candidates were vicious and he even made threats saying that he “might end up having to bring out the tanks” if the PSUV did not win. Chavez also threatened to withhold money and resources from states electing opposition governors. In addition, voters were intimidated by the use of finger printing machines that enable the government to see how people voted and some Chavez supporters at a number of sites were allowed to vote multiple times.

Given this vast amount of intimidation and government manipulation, the opposition did miraculously well considering the odds against them. Also of note is that the opposition was sufficiently united in fielding only one candidate for each electoral office. All of these factors should be considered when analyzing the outcome of the Venezuelan elections. Sadly in the eyes of Secretary General of the OAS, José Miguel Insulza, the ‘democratic procedure’ in Venezuela is essentially ‘all grown up’ and that these were “peaceful, exemplary” elections reflecting the “maturity that strengthens democratic institutions.” But what can we expect from a man who when challenged to confront glaring violations of freedom of expression, separation of powers, and constitutional order in Venezuela has remained silent.

The Near Future

The opposition’s gains provide them with an opportunity to show residents of Caracas and other cities, where there is rampant crime, accumulation of garbage, and blackouts, that they can do a better job than the PSUV before the legislative elections of 2010 and the presidential elections of 2012. However, the road ahead will not be easy. Chavez will most likely try to stop the opposition’s initiatives since he controls the central government and could stall the allocation of resources and limit the budgets to the regions where the opposition won.

On the international front, Chavez may have a hard time continuing to fund foreign allies such as Nicaragua, Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Cuba and runs the risk of alienating these countries which could end his aspirations of a Continental Bolivarian Revolution. In addition, Chavez will find it difficult to continue buying weapons from Russia or engage in other expensive ventures with China and Iran unless he figures out a way to make up for losses from the shortfall in decreased oil production and falling prices. In this regard, we could see an increase in drug trafficking and money laundering which will complicate matters for Venezuela’s neighbors especially Colombia since the FARC would likely be sought by Chavez to help operate these ventures. 

Regarding the United States, the falling price of oil will make him more dependent on the U.S. market. With President George W. Bush ending his mandate, Chavez’s foe and the one he calls “the Devil” will no longer be there to serve as a scapegoat for Venezuela’s problems. Chavez has won local and international support by attacking Bush and now with President-elect, Barack Obama, he may lose the ability to galvanize people so successfully. 

To conclude, the opposition seems to be working together more closely, realizing that to do otherwise would feed into the hands of Chavez. While they need to continue to strengthen their coalition, this election shows that they can make important strides in spite of formidable and undemocratic tactics used to demoralize them. The more the opposition can unite under one banner and one vision and one leader, the more likely their future success. While Chavez considers this election a win for him, it shows that when the opposition is determined and united it can rip into the fabric of dictatorship the Venezuelan leader is trying to construct.

Nicole M. Ferrand is a research analyst and editor of “The Americas Report” of the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center for Security Policy in Washington DC. (www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org). She is a graduate of Columbia University in Economics and Political Science with a background in Law from Peruvian University, UNIFE and in Corporate Finance from Georgetown University.

Nancy Menges is co-founder of the Menges Hemispheric Security Project at the Center and Editor-in-Chief of the Americas Report.