Confusion, Not Unity, in Libya

In a quick turn of events, the Libyan government in Tripoli, the National Salvation Government (NSG), has decided not to step down to the UN-backed unity government. Chief of the NSG, Khalifa Ghweil, called on ministers of the Tripoli government to not cede power to the unity government, threatening to prosecute anyone who does.

It was announced on April 5, 2016 that the Tripoli government was going to step down just days after the Unity government arrived in Tripoli. Reports from numerous media outlets mentioned that both the NSG and Libya’s Justice Ministry stated they would step down, but no names were listed. It is currently unclear who made the original decision, but it would appear Ghweil was not involved.

The UN and Western governments have pushed for a unity government in order to fight the growing presence of the Islamic State (IS). IS has been able to take advantage of Libya’s instability to establish several strongholds throughout the country. IS has been able to use Libya as a training ground, source of financing (oil), and a hub for transporting troops to Syria and Iraq.

Western governments are hesitant to intervene against IS in Libya until a unifed government is created. The hope is that if there is overwhelming support for their presence, the fight against IS will go more smoothly. If countries intervene in a situation where there are two governments, they could find themselves fighting the government in Tobruk or Tripoli along with IS.

With the unity government being established, Libya now has three governments vying for power. The country was unable to properly function with two governments, now it has to worry of a third thrusting itself into places of power.

Last Wednesday, March 30, 2016, Prime Minister of the unity government, Fayez Serraj, and six other members of the unity government traveled by boat to Tripoli. Shortly after their arrival heavy gunfire erupted in the center of the city by factions who opposed the new government.

The New York Times had reported that Serraj had been able to gain support of several militias within the city, including one that guards several Libyan oil terminals. They also reported Ghweil pledged to offer peaceful resistance to the new government instead of violence. This was a stark contrast to his initial statements for supporters to stand against “infiltrators.”

Ghweil’s initial warming up to the unity government came after the EU placed sanctions on him and two other Libyan politicians. Ghweil will now face a travel ban and his assets frozen until he relents to the unity government. These sanctions may have pushed Ghweil to originally consider allowing the unity government into power in Tripoli, but it would appear he has since changed his mind on the matter.

While the NSG may have decided to remain in power, the General National Congress (GNC) has decided to accept the Libyan Political Agreement (LPA) to form a State Council. In 2014, the GNC lost the election to the Council of Deputies (COD), but soon forcibly removed the COD with the help of the Libya Dawn, an alliance of Islamist militias. The GNC the helped to create the NSG, electing Omar al-Hassi as its PM.

The Libya Dawn acted as the military wing of the GNC, but there is no word as to how they will react to this dissolution. Libya Dawn is made up of many different Islamist militias, and they could easily split amongst themselves to back either side. No matter how they act, however, the GNC deciding to dissolve will create more difficulties and confusion in Libya.

In Tobruk, the situation is just as unclear as in Tripoli. Gen. Khalifa Haftar, the military leader of the Libyan army, has yet to decide how to deal with the unity government. Haftar has the dominant control of the military, and if the unity government wishes to unite the country, they will likely need him.

Haftar has expressed his desire to remain as chief of the military, and this will likely pose a problem to those in Tripoli. Haftar launched Operation Dignity in 2014 with the intention of routing out Islamists from the government and the country. The GNC claimed Operation Dignity was part of the reason they lost the election, blaming the operation against Libyan jihadists as suppressing turnout. The Unity government in Tripoli will likely be hesitant to allow Haftar to remain in a position of influence.

Along with Haftar, the House of Representatives (HOR), the government in Tobruk, is hesitant to accept the unity government. The HOR stated it is willing to accept the new government, but will not accept some of the proposed ministers.

The political situation in Libya remains heavily divided. Both the Tobruk and Tripoli factions have both the motivation and the ability to create roadblocks towards a unity government, and as the three sides continue to debate, Islamic State and other jihadist forces continue expand.