‘Convergence’ Plan for the West Bank and US Middle East Policy

(Washington, D.C.): In a highly timely analysis of the new Israeli prime minister’s plan to withdraw Israeli citizens and forces from most of the West Bank, the Center for Security Policy’s Senior Fellow for Mideast Affairs, Caroline Glick, concludes that: "Just as Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza has led to the takeover of that area by terrorist groups and their supporters, a similar withdrawal from the West Bank will result in an even more dangerous situation for the United States and its allies in the region."

Entitled "Prime Minister Ehud Olmert’s ‘Convergence’ Plan for the West Bank and U.S. Middle East Policy," this nineteen-page critique notes the irony that, at the same time as America is seeking to establish a modern, liberal democracy in Iraq in an effort to encourage the spread of freedom and stability in the Greater Middle East, an Israeli unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank threatens to create a new terror enclave in the Levant. From such an enclave, we must expect that jihadists will be able to spread their influence and destabilize the entire region, thus decreasing the prospect of American success in Iraq and threatening U.S. security interests elsewhere in the region – and far beyond.

In addition to her work for the Center, Ms. Glick is deputy managing editor of the Jerusalem Post. A former officer in the Israel Defense Forces, she was a core member of Israel ‘s negotiating team with the Palestinians and later served as an assistant policy advisor to the prime minister. She is widely regarded as one of the most insightful and informed strategic analysts of Middle East affairs.

The stakes for the United States of the Israeli government proposal are made even higher by Mr. Olmert’s expectation that the Bush administration and the Congress will agree to have American taxpayers finance this retreat from the West Bank, which he foresees costing some $10 billion.

In her paper, Ms. Glick outlines four key ways that a unilateral Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank will undermine America ‘s national security interests in the Middle East and its efforts to win the global war against Islamofascism. It will:

1. Weaken U.S. logistical capacities in Iraq. The destabilization of Israel and Jordan through the establishment of a Taliban-like regime in the West Bank will endanger the overland supply route U.S. forces use to move materiel from Israeli ports through Jordan into Iraq. This will increase U.S. dependency on Persian Gulf ports and invite Iran to create crises in the Straits of Hormuz.
2. Establish a new terror refuge in the West Bank that will serve as a training ground for terrorists who will fight not only against Israel and Jordan , but also against U.S. forces in Iraq.
3. Enhance the prestige of declared enemies of the U.S. including Iran, Syria, al Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, Wahabist extremists in Saudi Arabia and Salafist extremists in Egypt at the expense of the United States. The widespread perception in the Arab and Islamic world of Israel as a U.S. client state will cause an Israeli retreat and its consequent destabilization of Israel and Jordan to be seen for what they are: strategic defeats for America . This will, in turn, likely translate into thousands of additional recruits for global jihad against the United States .
4. Decrease motivation to cooperate with the U.S. in the war against Islamofascism throughout the Arab and Muslim world. This perceived victory for the global jihad will undermine U.S. efforts to gain the support of regimes and individuals around the globe, particularly those in the Arab and Islamic world such as leaders like Gen. Pervez Musharraf in Pakistan . He, like democracy activists in Iraq , and advocates of Islamic moderation in Europe , will be undercut and possibly undone by the victory of the jihadist forces in the aftermath of Israel ‘s withdrawal from the West Bank.

In light of these considerations and others elaborated upon in Ms. Glick’s paper, the Center for Security Policy strongly recommends that the United States not support Ehud Olmert’s retreat in the face – and to the great benefit – of forces that are fighting against this country and its allies. Instead, America should encourage him to pursue strategies that will have the effect of promoting the Free World’s interests and security.