Domestic political considerations Threaten Serious Harm For U.S.

(Washington, D.C.): It is no secret that control of 107th Congress hangs in the balance as the days before the November election slip away. In their determination to secure a renewed mandate, the GOP leadership has been moving heaven and earth to enable their members to get out of Washington and onto the hustings with a record of accomplishment that will work to their individual and collective advantage.

To do so, however, Speaker Dennis Hastert and his colleagues have been in the unenviable position of having to accept terms — from raising the minimum wage to new entitlement programs to busting the budget caps — that would have been unthinkable under other circumstances. Whether their constituents will, come November, reward or punish legislators at the polls for such behavior remains to be seen.

What is far less unpredictable, however, are the repercussions of allowing this strategy to leach into the foreign policy arena: If the full House of Representatives approves an “Armenian genocide” resolution scheduled to be marked-up today by a House International Relations subcommittee, U.S. relations with Turkey will suffer serious — and possibly irreparable — harm.

Turkey: An Indispensable Ally

Turkey is one of the most strategically important nations on the planet, situated at the cross-roads of Europe, Asia and the Middle East, with important — and generally very complex — ties to each. With the Cold War’s passing and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Turkey is surrounded by potential instability and conflict, a situation that shows no sign of change in the foreseeable future.

As former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Douglas J. Feith once put it:

“When most Americans think of Turkey, they envision a map of Europe whose center is usually Switzerland. Turkey, of course, appears in the lower right-hand corner of such a map — a sort of marginal nation, seemingly at the fringes of what matters in the world. This is certainly the way Europeans view their Islamic Turkish neighbor.

“On the other hand, if one conceptualizes a map that would contain most of the countries, conflicts and potential flashpoints with which the United States is vitally concerned at the moment — and likely to be preoccupied for the foreseeable future — it would include: the Balkans; Russia; the southern Caucasus and Caspian Basin; Iran, Iraq and the rest of the Persian Gulf; Syria, Israel and the Levant; and North Africa. And what nation is at the center, both in physical and geopolitical terms, of that map? Turkey, of course.”

Turkey’s geography and its unique status as a functioning, secular democracy in an Islamic nation make it a truly indispensable ally for the United States. These factors have also made it a prime target for those in Russia, Armenia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and elsewhere opposed to Western values, determined to spread radical Islam, weaken the NATO alliance — whose eastern anchor Turkey has long constituted — and/or work against U.S. interests in the several regions in which the Turks play a pivotal role. In particular, Turkey has long been in the cross-hairs of small but ambitious, and often violent, Islamist groups — some of whom receive support from neighboring Iran and Syria.

In recent years, however, some Islamists have sought power in Turkey through non-violent means. They have formed a political faction known as the Welfare Party (RP), that won 19 percent of the vote in the municipal elections of 1994. Since then, its appeal to Islamic values and social service organizations have caused its popularity to grow to the point where, in 1997, rivalries between the secular parties prevented them from forming a governing coalition and the nation was led for the first time since Attaturk by a religious party. Had the RP been able to hold onto power — or should it be returned to it in the future — there is reason to believe that the substantial American military infrastructure in the country, which is critical to America’s capability to influence events in Iraq, among other places, and the budding relationship between Israel and Turkey could be at risk.

Saving Congressman Rogan

Unfortunately, Speaker Hastert has felt obliged to pursue a course of action that could trigger a series of events leading to just such undesirable results: He has pledged to the politically active Armenian-American community that he will bring a resolution condemning Turkey for engaging in genocide against Armenia early in the 20th Century to the House floor and secure its approval before adjournment this Fall. If he does so, there is little doubt that among the repercussions will be the alienation of the pro-U.S. government of Turkey, the undermining of support at home for its policies and a shot-in-the-arm for Turkey’s anti-Western Islamist opposition.

This is all the more regrettable insofar as it should not fall to the Congress to adjudicate the arcane and bitterly debated question of whether the undisputed murder of hundreds of thousands of Armenians was a centrally planned and systematic act by the Ottoman Turk government that would, therefore, meet the definition of genocide. Or, alternatively, was it the result of widespread but uncoordinated ethnic warfare? It is hard to believe that any of those legislators who will shortly be asked to render judgment on this matter have done their homework by, for example, familiarizing themselves with the writings of Dr. Bernard Lewis — the Princeton scholar who is universally regarded as one of the most eminent experts in the field and who has concluded that “genocide” is not a proper characterization for what befell the Armenian people nearly a century ago.

The Speaker feels impelled to take such a course out of an understandable desire to help a valued and endangered colleague, Rep. Jim Rogan of California — whose role as an impeachment manager has made his defeat this November a priority for the Clinton team and its allies. Saving Mr. Rogan takes on additional importance as the two parties battle for every single seat in a hotly contested and increasingly desperate struggle for control of the Congress.

As it happens, there are said to be more Armenians in Rep. Rogan’s district than anywhere else outside of Armenia. In the hope of garnering support from this energetic and financially well-endowed minority, the Speaker pledged during an August campaign swing on behalf of the Congressman to secure House action on the Armenians’ Number One priority — H.Res. 155 which would put the U.S. government on record as finding that: “The Armenian genocide was conceived and carried out by Ottoman Turkish Governments from 1915 to 1923, resulting in the killing of 1,500,000 Armenian men, women, and children, the deportation of more than 500,000 survivors, and practically succeeded in the elimination of the over 2,500-year Armenian presence of Armenians in their historic homeland.”

The Bottom Line

As compelling as Speaker Hastert’s considerations are for pursuing this “Armenian genocide” initiative, they risk a potentially serious — if gratuitous and unnecessary — rupture with one of its most important strategic partners, Turkey.

To make matters worse, such a rupture would come at a particularly unpropitious time. For instance, Saddam Hussein is emerging once again as a mortal threat to his neighbors and Israel. Uncertainties about the future course of pivotal Persian Gulf states like Iran and Saudi Arabia are exacerbating concerns about future oil shocks and their economic consequences. And Israel may be on the brink of a new outbreak of violence as the Palestinians prepare to liberate the rest of “Palestine” — with or without another fraudulent “peace agreement.”

A stable, secure Turkey closely tied to the West is an indispensable counterweight to these and a number of other worrisome developments. It behooves the House Republican leadership, therefore, to find ways to secure a renewed mandate without jeopardizing vital national interests.