Ehud Olmert’s “Convergence” Plan for the West Bank and U.S. Middle East Policy

Conceptual Drawbacks of Olmert’s Convergence Plan: International Support

Olmert’s argument that Israeli withdrawals will strengthen Israel’s position in the international community, and thus from an American perspective, lower criticism of the U.S. in the Arab world and Europefor its support of Israel, does not stand up under scrutiny, either. Although Sharonreceived fleeting accolades at the UN General Assembly’s opening session in late September 2005, Israel’s position in international areas was not strengthened.[31] Israel’s defensive operations against the rocket and mortar attacks on southern Israel from Gaza have been met with international condemnation. U.S. Ambassador to the UN John Bolton has been forced to threaten an American veto of draft condemnations of Israel in the UN Security Council.[32]

The Palestinian Authority’s Hamas government has not been isolated by the international community. Russia, Turkey and China have all met with Hamas leaders since their election and have recognized the government. Egypt, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Qatar have all announced their intention to fund the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority, as, of course, has Iran. France, Italy and Norway have expressed a willingness and desire to meet with Hamas leaders.

On other issues of vital importance to Israel, international opinion has not shifted in its favor since the Gaza withdrawal. This is most evident in the continued unwillingness of the EU,RussiaandChinato take any effective measures against Iran’s nuclear program.

In sum, Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza has neither led to an increase of international support for Israel nor to an international isolation of the Palestinian Authority. At the same time, Israel and the U.S. are themselves isolated for calling for the international community to isolate the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority.

As with the Oslo Accords of the previous decade, temporary accolades for Israeli concessions have merely served as the prelude for international endorsement of escalating Palestinian demands and diminishing diplomatic Israeli freedom of action.

Security Implications of West Bank Withdrawal on Israel

If Olmert’s principal rationales for implementing the convergence plan do not stand up under scrutiny, the issues which he refuses to address – namely, the proposed withdrawal’s impact on Israel’s national security, regional stability, the fight against Islam of ascism and the promotion of U.S. national security interests all will likely be materially and adversely affected if his plan is implemented.

Should Israel withdraw its civilians and military forces from 90 percent of the West Bank, Israel’s national security will suffer three immediate blows:

• First, Hamas and its jihadist partners Hizbullah, Iran and al Qaeda will fill the vacuum left by Israel and use their control over the area to place Israel’s population centers and national infrastructures under missile and mortar threat and to increase their suicide bombings inside of Israel.[33] These terror forces, armed with the munitions they will smuggle in from Jordan,[34] Egypt, and Gaza, will be capable of launching missile attacks against Israel’s population centers in the Dan Region, including Tel-Aviv, Netanya, Hadera and Afula. Jerusalem will also be within missile, rocket and mortar range. Israel’s cities will be increasingly targeted with suicide bombings.[35]

Ben-GurionInternationalAirportwill be within range of Palestinian rockets and missiles, and thus all civilian air traffic entering and leaving Israel will be exposed to projectile threat. Israel’s major highways – including the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem highway, the trans-Israel Highway, the Tel Aviv-Haifa coastal highway and the highway linking Tiberias and Tel Aviv through Wadi Ara – will be within missile, rocket and mortar range. [36] The security barrier which Olmert intends to complete before the implementation of his withdrawal plan provides no protection from projectile fire.

Although the partially constructed security barrier has been credited with Israel’s success in recent years in limiting the volume of suicide bombings in Israeli cities, according to IDF commanders, the contribution made by the barrier to the decrease in suicide bombings has been limited. Senior military commanders claim that while the barrier has contributed to the drop in suicide bombings, it was Israel’s reassertion of military control over the Palestinian cities and towns of the West Bank since mid-2002 and not the security barrier that has prevented the majority of planned suicide bombings from being carried out.[37] These commanders warn that Olmert’s proposed withdrawal of these forces from the areas, and the relinquishment of Israeli military control and counter-terror initiative will empower the terror groups in the areas to reignite their suicide bombing offensive in Israeli cities.