Ehud Olmert’s “Convergence” Plan for the West Bank and U.S. Middle East Policy

•  Second, the Islamic takeover of the West Bank will cause a radicalization of Israeli Arabs. Polls have shown that since 2000, these citizens of Israel have ceased to define themselves as Israelis in favor of a Palestinian identity. The jihadist penetration of the Israeli Arab minority will place Israel’s continued sovereignty over the Galileeand the Negevin danger.[38]

•  Finally, the forced expulsion of tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes and communities in the West Bank will cause a major fragmentation and destabilization of Israeli society. While such an unraveling of the Israeli body politic would have numerous disastrous consequences, its direct impact on the IDF is worthy of specific note. Today, the West Bank settler population makes up some 50 percent of cadets in combat arms officer training courses in the IDF. The expulsion of the settler population in Gaza in August 2005 caused a severe alienation of this population group towards the state. This alienation has been marked by a significant decrease in volunteerism among its youth in IDF combat units and command courses. A massive expulsion of Israeli civilian populations in the West Bankis liable to break the back of the IDF officer population, particularly in junior and mid-level command positions up to and including battalion task forces in combat units.[39]

Security Implications of a West Bank Retreat on Jordan

On August 17, 2005, as the IDF was completing the expulsion of the 8,000 Israeli civilians from the Gaza Strip, al Qaeda launched a Katyusha rocket at Israel’s international airport in Eilat from its sister city of Aqaba in Jordan. In the aftermath of the attack, Israel’s Airport Authority began raising the possibility of closing the Eilat airport.[40] The al Qaeda strike on Israel from Jordan was the product of a large and growing al Qaeda presence in the Hashemite Kingdom. Abu Musab Zarqawi, al Qaeda’s commander in Iraq, is a Jordanian national and has pledged to overturn the Hashemite regime. In November 2005, al Qaeda cells in Jordan carried out simultaneous bombings in two hotels in Amman. The increased al Qaeda activity in Jordan coupled with al Qaeda’s establishment of bases in Gaza and the West Bank in the aftermath of the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and its large and growing presence in the Sinai Peninsula has caused Jordanian officials to register deep concern over the potential consequences of an Israeli withdrawal from the West Bank for the survivability of Jordan’s regime.[41]

The Hashemites today represent between 20-30 percent of the population of Jordan, with Palestinians comprising the rest of Jordan’s citizenry. In a video broadcast on April 25, 2006, Abu Musab Zarqawi renewed these threats and declared his commitment to destroying Israel. Zarqawi’s threats echoed those voiced by Osama bin Laden in an audiotape broadcast on April 23, 2006. There he directly linked al Qaeda to Hamas by stating that the U.S. and EU suspension of direct aid to the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority was an act of war against Islam.[42] To date, Israel’s military control of the West Bank has mitigated threats from the area to the stability of the Hashemite regime. An Israeli retreat from the West Bank will directly threaten the survivability of the Hashemites in Jordan.[43]

 Security Implications of West Bank Withdrawal for the United States

Traditionally, it has been argued that the Arab and Islamic conflict with the Jewish state is unrelated to the Arab and Islamic conflict with the United States and the rest of the Western world. Yet, in truth Israel’s fortunes are directly linked to those ofAmericain its quest to combat the forces of global jihad and anti-Western hostility in the Arab and Muslim world. This is the case both because of Israel’s tangible strategic ties to the U.S. and because of the strongly perceived link between the U.S. and Israel in the minds and hearts of the Arab and Muslim world.